Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas Razorbacks Betting pick | 2011-11-12

NCAA Football

2011-11-12 - Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas Razorbacks

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Tennessee Volunteers @ Arkansas Razorbacks
United States: NCAA Football Week 11
Saturday 12 November 2011 - Kick Off 6pm ET
11pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

Almost everyone in the nation will now be expecting the LSU Tigers to make up one half of the National Championship Game following their win over Alabama last week, but the Arkansas Razorbacks (8-1) will have a huge say in that. The Razorbacks can still win the SEC West if they can run the table, with all their ambitions beginning with this game against the Tennessee Volunteers (4-5), a team that will struggle to finish Bowl eligible this season.

Arkansas have only been beaten by Alabama this season, and bring a 4-1 Conference record into this game after demolishing the South Carolina Gamecocks last week. They should feel confident on improving that record as they face a Tennessee team that have been outmatched in the Conference this season, going 0-5 in their games.

The Razorbacks have one of the most high powered Offenses in the nation, and they figure to be able to move the ball without too many issues this weekend. They should be able to establish a decent running game against this Defense and that will only make life easier for Tyler Wilson, the QB already having a successful season tossing 15 TDs and only 4 Interceptions.

Tennessee have been good against the pass so far, but they don't get enough pressure on the QB to be effective this week and I expect Wilson will be able to make plays with his arm once the team is left in short and manageable situations by the running game.

The biggest issue for Arkansas on the Defensive side of the ball is whether they can stop the run effectively in their games, but that is something that is not concerning me as much this week as Tennessee have only gained 2.6 yards per carry this season. The Volunteers have struggled to get a running game established, while the Razorbacks will replicate the schemes that limited South Carolina to 77 yards on the ground last week.

With a lack of a rush, that means the pressure builds on the passing game to keep the chains moving. First they will have to use Justin Worley at QB as Tyler Bray is still missing, and they go up against a Razorback Defense that has allowed less than 200 yards per game through the air and one that has given up 9 TD passes and also gained 9 Interceptions this season.

Arkansas can also dial up an effective pass rush and they should be able to leave Tennessee in tough passing situations that they can give their front 4 a chance to pin back their ears and go after Worley.

Head to Head

This is the first meeting between the teams since 2007, an occasion when Tennessee were double-digit winners against the Razorbacks at home.

Arkansas won the last time they entertained Tennessee back in 2006.

Tennessee are 2-6 against the spread in the last 8 games in the series.

The home team is 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 games in the series.

Arkansas are 5-4 against the spread this season, Tennessee are 3-4-2.

Other Interesting Trends

Arkansas are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home favourite of 10.5 points or more. They are 12-4 against the spread in their last 16 games in Conference play.

Tennessee are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games as the road underdog of 10.5 points or more. They are 0-4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games in Conference play.

Prediction

I have not had a lot of luck backing Arkansas this season, going 1-3 against the spread in their games, but I do like them to cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:

First, I don't foresee too many problems for the Razorbacks moving the ball up and down the field and they should be able to score enough points to make it difficult for Tennessee to stay close.

Second, Tennessee will struggle to get a lot going on the Offensive side of the ball, especially considering their strengths match up badly against the Arkansas strength and they have struggled to run the ball effectively.

Third, the Razorbacks should be fully focused of this game to stay relevant in the SEC West, while Tennessee may be looking ahead to their final 2 games which are more winnable when it comes to making themselves Bowl eligible.