NCAA Football
2011-11-12 - Miami Hurricanes at Florida State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 11
Saturday 12 November 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is a huge inter-State rivalry between two ACC teams who have perhaps been a little disappointing this season.
The Florida State Seminoles (6-3) have already confirmed their Bowl eligibility, but are very much unlikely to win the ACC Atlantic Division, while the Miami Hurricanes (5-4) still need 1 more win if they want to have one more game after the season ends, but they too are almost certainly out of the ACC Coastal race.
The Seminoles are 4-2 in Conference games this season, but defeats to Clemson and Wake Forest means they need the top to blow up if they are to take the Atlantic Division, although a Clemson win this weekend would just about secure the Division for the Tigers. Miami are 3-3 in Conference games, but they are essentially 3 games behind Virginia Tech and 1 loss, or Hokies win, from being out of chances to win their Division.
Florida State had fallen away from contention in almost every aspect after losing 3 games on the bounce, with an injury to EJ Manuel coinciding with those defeats. They had begun the season as one of the higher ranked teams, but have been fighting for redemption since those defeats. The team have bounced back with 4 consecutive wins, and will look to extend that streak here.
The Offense should be able to move the chains against the Miami Defense that had struggled to slow down Virginia in a recent game. Manuel has been very good through the air, although he will have to be careful against a Miami Defense that has picked up plenty of sacks and is very successful at making tackles in the backfield. However, the Defense can be susceptible to the big play, especially through the air.
Any pass rush may also be negated if Florida State can establish a running game, a distinct possibility against a Defense that allows 4.4 yards per carry. Manuel has the ability to scramble himself, but it will be down to Devonta Freeman to carry the bulk of the running load for the Seminoles.
While the Seminoles should be able to move the chains with some consistency, the Miami Offense will figure they will be able to have some success too through the play of Jacory Harris. Harris has been very good at the QB position this season, removing some of the inconsistencies that had blighted him in previous seasons, and his 18 TD passes and 4 Interceptions have been key to the success Miami have had.
This is going to be a big challenge for the Miami passing game this week as they face one of the best front 4 Defenses in College Football, one that has been able to get consistent pressure on the opposition QB. The Seminoles have allowed under 190 yards per game through the air and they are recording 3.3 sacks per game, making them one of the best Defenses in the nation.
They only back up their play by being tough to run on- Florida State have allowed just 2.2 yards per carry this season and will figure they can shut down Lamar Miller, the running back recording his first 100 yard game in 4 last week. While Miami have been successful running the ball this season, it figures to be a really tough week for them if they cannot get Miller established, leaving Harris to make plays against a rabid pass rush.
Head to Head
Florida State crushed Miami on the road last season, winning outright while set as the 5.5 point underdog.
That means the road team have won the last 5 games in the series, both straight up and against the spread.
The underdog have also improved to 11-1 against the spread in the last 12 games in the series.
Miami are 3-1 against the spread, and straight up, in their last 4 visits to Gainesville.
Florida State are 5-4 against the spread this season, as are Miami.
Other Interesting Trends
Florida State are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home favourite. They have won their last 4 games against the spread in Conference play.
Miami are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games as the road underdog.
They are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record at home. They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games in Conference play.
Prediction
I like Florida State to win this game and reverse recent trends by covering the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Seminoles have one of the best Defenses in the nation and they could help win the field position battle and give the Offense short fields to work with, thus making it easier to score points.
Second, Florida State should get plenty of success with their Defense against this Offense as they find a way to pressure Jacory Harris while making them one-dimensional by shutting down the running game.
Third, Florida State have been in great form recently and are just not letting teams get near them by shutting down Offenses.
I am a little concerned that Miami will earn more success than I think as they do have a good Offense that has protected the ball. However, I think that will only allow them to keep things close for a while, before they are forced into obvious passing situations to play catch up.
I am also aware that they have not lost a game by more than 7 points this season, less than the spread here, but I think this is the one Defense that is most likely to restrict Miami's scoring and allow the Seminoles to pull away.
The Pick :
Florida State 31-20 Miami Hurricanes
