NCAA Football
2011-11-12 - West Virginia at Cincinnati Bearcats
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 11
Saturday 12 November 2011 - Kick Off 12pm ET
5pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Big East has had plenty of issues to contend with this season off the field, while the play on the field has been a little disappointing for the most part. The Cincinnati Bearcats (7-1) currently have control of the Conference, but face a tough test against the underachieving West Virginia Mountaineers (6-3).
The Bearcats remain unbeaten in Conference play this season, going 3-0 including a couple of big wins on the road at South Florida and Pittsburgh. The Mountaineers are 2-2 within the Conference and have given themselves a mountain (pardon the pun) to overcome in the Big East following a home loss to Louisville last time out.
Cincinnati have shown some real character in being unbeaten in Conference play, having to come back from 9 point deficits in each of the wins they recorded. The Offense have been racking up the yards all season and they have found decent balance by recording 230 yards through the air and 190 yards on the ground.
The whole key to the Offense could be whether Isaiah Pead can establish any kind of running game for Cincinnati. The team have averaged 5 yards per carry this season, mainly thanks to Pead who has 821 yards this season at 6 yards per carry, but they come up against a West Virginia Defense that has played the rushing game fairly well. However, they have struggled in the last 3 games by allowing 150 yards per game on the ground in those contests and also 7 rushing TDs.
Zach Collaros provides a dual threat at QB and he has 8 rushing TDs to go with the 14 he has thrown, although he also has 8 Interceptions on the season. Collaros should have a strong game against a Mountaineers Defense that does not really get enough pressure on the QB to force bad decisions, while they have allowed just under 60% of passes to be completed.
With Cincinnati likely to find success against the Defense, it will be up to Geno Smith to make sure the Mountaineers Offense can at least keep up with them. Smith has been in great form this season, throwing 23 TD passes and only 5 Interceptions, including 4 last week in a losing effort. The Bearcats have allowed 277 yards per game through the air, so I would be more than surprised if Smith cannot get things going again this week.
While the Bearcats have been hurt through the air, they have continued helping the team win games as they have been able to create turnovers, while they have one of the most effective pass rushes in the nation. West Virginia have given up 9 sacks in the last 3 games they have played so they will need to establish a running game to at least slow down the pass rush and give Smith time to take advantage of the Secondary.
Dustin Garrison is the leading rusher in terms of yards per carry in the Big East, going at 6.1 yards per carry, although he will not find it easy to get established against Cincinnati who are allowing just 2.5 yards per carry as a Defense and have allowed less than 87 yards rushing per game on the season. It could be wise for West Virginia to open the running lanes by getting some significant yards with their passing game and then taking advantage as the Bearcats drop more men into coverage.
Josh Taylor (NG) remains questionable for West Virginia having missed the game last week. Brad Starks (WR) was injured last week and will be missing the rest of the season- Starks finished with 4 TDs this season.
Head to Head
West Virginia were big winners against Cincinnati in Morgantown last season, their first win since 2007.
Cincinnati had won 2 in a row before that defeat last season. The Bearcats are 1-3 both straight up and against the spread in their last 4 home games against West Virginia.
The road team is 5-2-1 against the spread in the last 8 games in the series.
Cincinnati are 5-3 against the spread this season, West Virginia are 4-5.
Other Interesting Trends
Cincinnati are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home favourite.
The Bearcats are 4-11 against the spread in their last 15 games following a straight up win and they are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games in Conference play.
West Virginia are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
WVU are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up loss and they are 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 games against a team with a winning record.
Prediction
I am going to back the West Virginia Mountaineers to at least keep this close for the following reasons:
First, West Virginia are predominantly a passing team and that has been the weakness of this Cincinnati Defense all season.
Second, Cincinnati should be able to move the chains against this Defense, but could be forced to move away from the running game if they fall into a hole, and that will move the advantage from themselves to the Mountaineers.
Third, West Virginia have a strong record in visits to Cincinnati and will still feel they have a big say in the Big East, even if they have lost twice already.
The Pick :
Cincinnati Bearcats 38-35 West Virginia
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the West Virginia Mountaineers +4 Points
