NCAA Football
2011-11-12 - Wake Forest at Clemson Tigers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 11
Saturday 12 November 2011 - Kick Off 12pm ET
5pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The ACC Atlantic Division is going to have an exciting finish as 3 teams remain in the hunt to earn their way into the Championship Game, and this week we get to see 2 of those teams go up against one another. The Clemson Tigers (8-1) hold a 1 game lead in the Division over Florida State and their opponents the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-4) and the Tigers know a win will essentially secure the Division.
Clemson are 5-1 in the Conference, but they hold a win over Florida State and know they will be the winners of the Atlantic if they win 2 of their last 3 games, with 1 of those games being this one against Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons finished 3-9 overall last season, but they are 4-2 in the ACC this year as they are just 1 game away from being Bowl eligible as well as still being involved in the ACC title hunt.
The Tigers have been stewing for 2 weeks as they had a bye week since their heavy defeat against Georgia Tech and they will be looking to bounce back from losing their unbeaten record. They should have plenty of success with their Offense that has been piling up the yards at will, both through the air and on the ground, all season and I expect Clemson will enjoy that success against Wake Forest.
Tahj Boyd has thrown 25 TD passes and just 5 Interceptions this season and I figure he will have another big day against the Demon Deacons Defense that has struggled to create turnovers or sacks this season. Clemson's Offensive Line has not found it easy protecting Boyd this season, but I believe the lack of a pass rush from Wake Forest will make life that much easier this week.
Boyd will be helped by Andre Ellington running the ball to at least keep the Wake Forest Defense on their toes and he should be able to get some chunks of yardage on the ground.
With Clemson likely to be moving the chains fairly consistently, it will be up to Wake Forest to keep in touch, but that may be more difficult than originally imagined. The Demon Deacons will look to Tanner Price to continue making plays with his arm at the QB position, although he will be going up against the Clemson Defensive strength.
Wake Forest have struggled to protect Price and the Tigers have been successful getting after the opposition QB, and that also leads to teams completing under 55% of their passes against the Clemson Secondary.
On the other hand, Josh Harris and Brandon Pendergrass will have to help Wake Forest improve on their 3 yard per carry average to make sure Price is given a chance in short and manageable situations. Clemson have been allowing almost 5 yards per carry so the backs should have a chance of getting themselves established, else it could be a tough day for this Offense in playing catch up.
Harris is listed as doubtful for this game having been banged up in a loss to Notre Dame last week and that would leave Brandon Pendergrass as the main back.
Head to Head
Clemson beat Wake Forest by 20 points on the road last season, their 2nd consecutive win in the series both straight up and against the spread.
The Tigers have won the last 4 home games against Wake Forest, going 2-1-1 against the spread in those games.
Clemson won by 35 points in their last meeting here in South Carolina.
The home team is 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 games in the series.
Clemson are 7-2 against the spread this season, Wake Forest are 5-4.
Other Interesting Trends
Clemson have won their last 4 games against the spread as the home favourite. They are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games in Conference play.
Wake Forest are 3-11 against the spread in their last 14 games as the road underdog. They have lost their last 4 games against the spread as the road underdog being given 10.5 points or more.
They are 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games in Conference play.
Prediction
I am going to back the Clemson Tigers to cover the big spread for the following reasons:
First, I expect Clemson will be able to move the chains consistently in this game and they should be able to score at least 30 points.
Second, the Tigers Defense matches up very well against the Wake Forest Offense, so they should be able to make enough stops to give the Offense a chance to pull away.
Third, Clemson have had an extra week to prepare for this game and make up for the Georgia Tech defeat in their last game. The team should be fired up and ready to go and make a big statement by effectively sealing the ACC Atlantic Division.
The Pick :
Clemson Tigers 44-24 Wake Forest
