NCAA Football
2011-11-12 - Alabama at Mississippi State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 11
Saturday 12 November 2011 - Kick Off 7:45pm ET
12:45am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The 'Game of the Century' was a fascinating affair last week, but it has not exactly got people clamouring over themselves to see the LSU Tigers take on the Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1) in the National Championship Game, although that remains a distinct possibility. The Crimson Tide will look to make a statement in each of their remaining games, starting with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-4) who are trying to confirm their Bowl eligibility.
Both teams are in the SEC West, where Alabama are 5-1 thanks to that loss in Overtime to the Tigers last week, while Mississippi State have struggled to a 1-4 record in Conference play.
Alabama must be disappointed with the result from last week simply because they were beaten by the special teams that failed to kick 4 FGs, while AJ McCarron was Intercepted 2 times. There are some positives from the fact the team gained just under 300 yards in total Offense against one of the toughest Defenses in College Football.
There have to be some concerns for the Mississippi State Defense after they struggled to stop the run last week against Tennessee-Martin, not exactly the kind of preparation for Heisman chasing Trent Richardson. The Bulldogs have only allowed 3.9 yards per carry this season, but Tennessee-Martin were going for 5.5 yards per carry last week and I expect Richardson and this powerful Offensive Line will create holes for the star back.
If Richardson keeps things going on the ground, Alabama will be given short and manageable situations for McCarron who should be able to complete his passes against a Defense who pass rush would thus be negated.
A bigger problem for Mississippi State is they go against what looks like the best Defense in College Football, one that only allowed LSU to gain 239 yards of total Offense. Vick Ballard has run the ball well for the Bulldogs this season, but he goes up against a Defense that has allowed just 2 yards per carry and held teams to 56 yards per game on the ground.
That means Tyler Russell and Chris Relf will be left in tough situations to make plays with their arm from the QB position as the Alabama Defense will be able to send their pass rush to get after whoever is behind Center. The Crimson Tide have given up just 130 yards per game through the air and they look more than capable of shutting down the Bulldogs Offense that scored just 6 points against LSU earlier this season.
Nickoe Whitley (FS) should return to the Mississippi State team this week after missing the game last week through suspension.
Alabama will be hoping a few players that were banged up against LSU last week will still be good to go this week. Barrett Jones (LT), Dre Kirkpatrick (CB) and Brad Smelley (TE) are all set as questionable from various ailments from that game. Marquis Maze (WR) is listed as probable despite hurting his ankle last week.
Head to Head
Alabama have won all 3 meetings between the teams since their last loss in 2007, winning those games by an average of 24 points per game.
Mississippi State have failed to score more than 10 points in any of their last 3 games against Alabama and it is no surprise that the Crimson Tide have covered the spread in each of the last 3 games.
They last played here in Starkville in 2009, with Alabama winning 31-3.
Alabama are 3-1 against the spread and straight up in their last 4 visits to Mississippi State.
The road team is 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games in the series.
Mississippi State are 4-5 against the spread this season, Alabama are 7-2.
Other Interesting Trends
Mississippi State are 5-11 against the spread in their last 16 games as the home underdog of 10.5 points or more.
They are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record on the road.
Alabama have won their last 6 games against the spread as the road favourite of 10.5 points or more.
However, the Crimson Tide are just 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games following a straight up loss.
Prediction
I am going to back the Alabama Crimson Tide to win this game in impressive fashion for the following reasons:
First, Alabama may have struggled in games after losses in recent trends, but they have so much still to gain this season if they can win in impressive fashion so I expect them to not have an emotional let down this week.
Second, Mississippi State struggled to get things going Offensively against the LSU Tigers earlier this season, and the Alabama Defense is arguably even tougher to move the ball against.
Third, Mississippi State struggled against the run last week and face the best running back in College Football this week as Trent Richardson comes to town. I expect this Heisman candidate to run all over the Bulldogs this week.
Fourth, the Crimson Tide have dominated the Bulldogs in recent meetings, both overall and on the road.
The Pick :
Mississippi State 6-27 Alabama
