NCAA Football
2011-11-12 - Nebraska Cornhuskers at Penn State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 11
Saturday 12 November 2011 - Kick Off 12pm ET
5pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Big Ten has been an open race this season with no teams really separating themselves from the pack. The Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1) are in control of the Big Ten Leaders Division having gone 5-0 in Conference play so far and holding a 2 game lead over their closest rivals. They entertain the Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-2) who are 1 game behind the Michigan State Spartans in the Big Ten Legends Division, but there are much bigger elements at play than football in Happy Valley this weekend.
Joe Paterno, the Nittany Lions Head Coach of 46 years, was fired on Wednesday as allegations of a child-sex scandal has rocked Penn State. Jerry Sandusky, the Penn State Defensive Co-Ordinator from 1977-99, has been accused of sexually assaulting children on campus, including a 2002 incident which Paterno was told about, and did no more but tell his own bosses at Penn State.
The fact Sandusky was allowed to continue with his new role with the Nittany Lions was a disgrace in itself, while morally JoePa has to be criticised. Now the team have to prepare to maintain their lead in the Leaders Division with a lot of outside distractions.
Even though they had a bye week last week, I am not sure how much work has been done in preparing the Nittany Lions for this game, especially with all the goings-on. Penn State's Offense has been pretty poor for most of the season, and much of the work is going to be given to Silas Redd (RB) and the Cornhuskers can expect a heavy dose of runs after failing to stop Northwestern on the ground last week.
I can imagine Nebraska will want to load the box and try and force Penn State to win using the arm of either Matt McGloin or Rob Bolden, the two QBs who have both been involved in the Offense this season. They have combined for 8 TD passes and 7 Interceptions on the season and are unlikely to get a lot of joy from the Nebraska pass Defense, especially of Redd can't get things moving on the ground.
The Penn State strength has been their Defense all season, a unit that has given up less than 300 total yards of Offense per game this season. They have also recorded 23 sacks and 22 turnovers, using this to make sure they win games with the only defeat suffered against the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide.
Nebraska have been strong on the ground but Rex Burkhead struggled last week against Northwestern and will not have things easier against a Defense that only allows 3.1 yards per carry. A key for the Cornhuskers is they have a dual threat QB in Taylor Martinez who may be able to exploit any running lanes the rushing Penn State Defense can give him.
Martinez has not had the best of seasons as he continues trying to prove he is a good enough QB at this level. He has 10 TD passes and 7 Interceptions, but has also helped with 9 TDs on the ground. Martinez will hope the running game can at least leave him in short and manageable situations so as to avoid the Penn State pass rush, but he will have a tough time through the air throughout this contest.
Head to Head
Nebraska and Penn State will be playing for the first time since 2003, an occasion when the Cornhuskers took away a 8 point win at home but failed to cover as the 10.5 point favourites.
This will be the first time the Nittany Lions have hosted Nebraska since 2002, a 33 point win for the home team.
Penn State are 2-7 against the spread this season, Nebraska are 3-6.
Other Interesting Trends
Penn State are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games as the home underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points. They are 1-8 against the spread in their last 9 games against a team with a winning record.
Nebraska are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points. They are 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 games against a team with a winning record at home.
Prediction
I don't feel great about myself for saying this, but I am backing the Nebraska Cornhuskers to win and cover the spread in this situation where Penn State are surely not focused on the game.
The Nittany Lions will be shocked by all the allegations surrounding the coaching staff they have come to know very well over the course of the season and previously, and it is hard to think they will not have their minds on other things than playing a football game.
Penn State have struggled Offensively anyway this season, and Nebraska have enough talent to score enough points to cover the spread, although I wish I had got it while it was still at 3 points or less.
There should be a large and vocal support for Joe Paterno and the home team on Saturday, but I feel their focus may not be on the game in hand and so Nebraska look the call.
I also feel Penn State have been over-rated all season and were going to be exposed sooner or later- this just looks a game that may get away from them as emotions take over.
Personally these allegations at Penn State have sickened me beyond belief as I have followed the story all week, and I really wish the victims of the abuse get their closure and can somehow move forward with their lives.
The Pick :
Penn State 13-20 Nebraska Cornhuskers
