NCAA Football
2011-11-12 - Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 11
Saturday 12 November 2011 - Kick Off 2pm ET
7pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is a Big 12 clash as the season races towards its conclusion as the Baylor Bears (5-3) try and secure Bowl eligibility by knocking off the already eliminated Kansas Jayhawks (2-7) in a road game on Saturday afternoon. They Jayhawks have really struggled in the Conference this season, going 0-6 so far, while the Bears are 2-3 in what may be seen as a disappointing season after a fast start.
Kansas have dropped their last 7 games as they have struggled to stop teams scoring on them, although they only allowed 13 points against Iowa State last week, the lowest amount they have allowed since giving up 24 points against Minnesota in Week 1. The Jayhawks had allowed at least 42 points in 8 consecutive games before that game last week.
Baylor had lost 3 of 4 games, but against teams of the likes of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, before pulling an impressive win against Missouri last week.
Robert Griffin III and the Baylor Offense should be high on confidence after totalling 700 yards of Offense last week against Missouri, and they figure to have a huge game against the Jayhawks who have struggled in Defense all season. The QB should be able to carve up this Secondary that has allowed 284 passing yards per game, and they are getting little to no pressure on the opposition QB which suggests Baylor will be having a big game.
The Bears have also been very good on the ground, earning 5 yards per carry this season and they too should have plenty of success moving the chains against a Defense that has allowed 6 yards per carry. Terrance Ganaway is 2nd in the Big 12 in terms of rushing average and will get a good chance to pad his stats in this game.
Kansas will be hoping their Offense can take advantage of Baylor's Defensive problems that has seen teams being able to move the chains at will against them. The Bears have allowed at least 42 points per game in the last 3 games they have played, but the Jayhawks Offense is not as strong as the ones they have been facing.
The Offense will be led by Jordan Webb, who has 12 TD passes and 6 Interceptions this season, and he should have a chance to expose some of the Baylor shortcomings in the Secondary. However, his Offensive Line has not really offered him the protection to give him time on a consistent basis this season, and that will give the Bears pass rush a chance to get after Webb.
It will be key for Kansas to slow down any pass rush and to keep Webb in short and manageable situations, something that can be achieved by establishing Darrian Miller in the backfield. While Kansas have struggled to run the ball consistently, they do face a Bears Defense that has allowed 5.7 yards per carry this season. Kansas cannot afford to get too far behind as they would have to move away from the running game and give Baylor a chance to pin back their ears and consistently get after Webb.
Brandon Bourbon (RB) and Daymond Patterson (WR) will both be missing for Kansas in this game.
Baylor are boosted by the news that their leading receiver, Kendall Wright, will be in the starting line up on Saturday, although their Defense is a little banged up. Chance Casey (S), Gary Mason (DL) and Elliot Coffey (LB) are some big pieces that will all be missing this week.
Head to Head
Baylor hammered Kansas by 48 points at home last season, covering the spread when going in as the 9 point favourites.
They haven't played here in Lawrence since 2007, when Kansas beat Baylor, also by 48 points, as the 26 point favourites.
The last 4 games in the series have been split 2-2 between the teams against the spread.
Kansas are 4-5 against the spread this season, Baylor are 4-3.
Other Interesting Trends
Kansas are 12-25 against the spread in their last 37 games as the home underdog.
The Jayhawks are 5-17 against the spread in their last 22 games as the home underdog of 10.5 points or more. They are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games in Conference play.
Baylor are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road favourite.
They are also 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games in Conference play. They are 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 games against a team with a losing record.
Prediction
I am going to back the Baylor Bears to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Baylor are going to be more than capable of putting up at least 42 points in this game with their Offense against this vulnerable Secondary and overall Defense.
Second, Kansas are going to find it tough to keep up with a team that is capable of scoring points quickly as Baylor are, and that could eventually lead to a blow out.
Third, the Jayhawks are trying to give their younger players some experience and they have less to play for than Baylor who can confirm themselves as Bowl eligible with a win here. Robert Griffin III will also want to give himself a chance to boost his reputation by not letting up in this game.
The Pick :
Kansas Jayhawks 21-48 Baylor Bears
