NFL Football
2011-11-10 - Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 10
Thursday 10 November 2011 - Kick Off 8:20pm ET
1:20am (British Standard Time)
Preview
It looked like the AFC West was going to be a tough Division this season, mostly by the San Diego Chargers (4-4) and the Oakland Raiders (4-4) who had started the season with strong winning runs. However, both teams have hit hard times of late and allowed the Kansas City Chiefs and, more surprisingly, the Denver Broncos back into the race with only 1 game separating all the teams in this Division.
San Diego were once again killed by turnovers in their latest loss, their 3rd in a row, when they were beaten by 7 points against the best team in the NFL, the Green Bay Packers. It is hard enough to beat the Packers when playing your 'A' game, but the Chargers never recovered from a 1st Quarter when 2 Interceptions were returned as TDs, although they did show some guts to fight back from a 21 point deficit in the final Quarter.
While the Chargers defeat was disappointing, but perhaps expected, there were no excuses for the Oakland Raiders who blew a 10 point lead over the Denver Broncos at home, eventually losing by 14 points. They seemed to have complete control of the game, but allowed Tim Tebow to make big plays, while also being hurt by special teams that allowed the Broncos to score the go-ahead TD from a punt return.
Things won't be easier for the Raiders on Thursday night as they continue to try and integrate Carson Palmer into their Offense. Palmer made some really good throws on Sunday, but was picked another 3 times by the Broncos to take his Interceptions to 6 in around 1.5 games since being traded from the Bengals. The Chargers pass Defense has given up less than 200 yards per game through the air, but couldn't stop Aaron Rodgers making the key throws on Sunday.
The Defense is allowing teams to move the chains too often through the air, although they can generate a pass rush that could get to Palmer if the Raiders do not run the ball effectively. Oakland will be missing Darren McFadden again for this game as he did on Sunday, but Michael Bush has proven himself to be a capable replacement and he should be able to give Palmer a chance by gaining chunks of yards on the ground.
San Diego will also be missing their star running back as Ryan Mathews looks set to miss out, but, like Oakland, they have a replacement in Mike Tolbert that is capable of gaining yards on the ground as he did against Green Bay. The Chargers have only gained 4 yards per carry so far this season, but figure to have more success this week against an Oakland Defense that has struggled to contain runners, with Willis McGahee and Tim Tebow gashing them on the ground on Sunday.
The biggest question mark around San Diego is Philip Rivers, a player that has not come close to his usual high standards. Rivers tossed another 3 Interceptions on Sunday, taking his season total to 14 while only throwing 11 TD passes. A lot of rumours suggest he is playing with an injury, but he has denied that, although no one can suggest all is well in Rivers' world.
He should have success this week against an Oakland Defense that has really struggled with their coverage in the Secondary. The Raiders have given up just under 250 yards per game through the air, and that is all with an effective pass rush as the absence of Nnamdi Asomugha is really telling on the Defensive Backs. The Raiders will be able to pressure Rivers, but the pass rush could be negated if they fail to control Tolbert on the ground.
Another key to this game could be which of the teams have better discipline as both as some of the most flagged teams in the NFL. Oakland lead the League in terms of penalties and killed their own drives on Sunday when having 130 yards of penalties.
The Chargers have given up 33 flags in their last 3 games, all losses.
Head to Head
Oakland had lost 9 games in a row in the series with San Diego before sweeping the Chargers last season.
The Raiders also moved to 4-0 against the spread in the last 4 games in the series.
San Diego are 2-6 against the spread this season, Oakland are 5-3.
Other Interesting Trends
San Diego are 24-7 against the spread in their last 31 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games played in November.
Oakland are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games as the road underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
They have lost their last 4 games against the spread that have been played on Thursday.
Prediction
I am going to back the San Diego Chargers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think the Chargers are a better team than they have shown in recent games, and could have easily won 2 of their last 3 games that they have lost. If Rivers can cut the turnovers, the Chargers will win the AFC West.
Second, Oakland are missing their best Offensive weapon and Carson Palmer is struggling to get up to 'football speed'. He has made some big mistakes and the Chargers could take advantage of that.
Third, the Raiders are also hurting their own drives by giving away stupid penalties, putting their QB under more pressure by leaving him in 2nd and long or 3rd and long situations.
Fourth, Sebastien Janikowski is a big weapon for the Raiders, being able to score points from FGs from over 50 yards out, but he looked a little tentative on his only FG try on Sunday and I am not convinced his hamstring is going to give him a chance for the big attempts he has become known for.
It looks unlikely that the spread will come down under a TD now, and I think it is more likely to move up to 7.5 points being the only game played on Thursday night and the Chargers usually a public pick.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
San Diego Chargers 24-16 Oakland Raiders
