NFL Football
2011-11-06 - Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 9
Sunday 6 November 2011 - Kick Off 8:20pm ET
1:20am (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is a huge AFC North game with the winner getting the inside lane to the Play Offs as the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) look to square the season series with the Baltimore Ravens (5-2) and open up a 1.5 game lead in the Division over their biggest rivals.
The Steelers made a statement last week as they shut down the New England Patriots on both sides of the ball and pushed themselves into the spot of being the favourites to win the AFC Championship. If you didn't know that old 'Steelers Football' was no longer in operation at Heinze Field, last week showed that the team have become a pass first Offense.
Baltimore themselves have looked really bad Offensively over the last couple of games as they have struggled to take care of Jacksonville and Arizona. The Defense continues to play at a high level, but they will need the Offense to step up their game if they don't want to waste what looks like an elite Defense.
The Ravens Defense has been very good against the pass this season, giving up less than 175 yards per game through the air, but there remains a weakness at Secondary that could be exposed by a Pittsburgh team that will spread out their receivers and use their speed against Baltimore. The biggest concern for the Steelers in this set will be negating the pass rush the Ravens can generate, especially as the Offensive Line has struggled at times this season.
It seems the pressure will be squarely on Ben Roethlisberger's shoulders to keep the chains moving as I don't think the running game of the Steelers will find too much success against this Ravens Defense that has allowed just 3.3 yards per carry this season.
The hardest thing to gauge in this game is how Joe Flacco and the Offense will play after a couple of very disappointing weeks. He will be helped by the fact that LaMarr Woodley and James Farrior are both expected to sit, although the returning James Harrison will mean Flacco will face some pressure in the backfield. The Steelers actually have a better pass Defense statistically than the Ravens, but the injuries to players like Farrior and Woodley should give Baltimore a chance to move the ball through the air.
Ray Rice should be the biggest factor for the Offense and should give Flacco a chance to convert some short and manageable situations. Pittsburgh have surprisingly struggled with their rushing Defense this season, allowing 4.4 yards per carry, so I expect Rice will be able to earn some success on the ground, as well as being a factor as a receiver coming out of the backfield in check downs for Flacco.
Another factor is Pittsburgh's lack of turnovers this season which could give Baltimore the edge when it comes to field position in the game. The Ravens remain a team that will be opportunistic on Defense, forcing fumbles and creating Interceptions to give their Offense a chance to do big things.
Head to Head
This is a big revenge angle for Pittsburgh as they were shelled 35-7 in Baltimore in Week 1 and believed the Ravens were running up the score when going for 2 points after a TD rather than kicking the point after.
The Steelers beat Baltimore here in the Play Offs last season, earning a 7 point win after a good comeback.
Baltimore are 2-2-1 against the spread in their last 5 games played in Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh are 4-4 against the spread this season, Baltimore are 4-3.
Other Interesting Trends
Pittsburgh are 23-9 against the spread in their last 32 games played as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
They are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games against fellow AFC North teams.
Baltimore are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 4 games as the road underdog getting between 3.5 and 10 points.
Prediction
If you like your football tough and full of big hitting, I would completely recommend this game to you tonight. I am going to be backing the Baltimore Ravens to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, these games are notoriously tight affairs between two tough teams and 4 of the last 7 have been settled by a field goal margin. Getting over a field goal is a huge deal as far as I am concerned.
Second, I think Joe Flacco will have a better game against this Steelers Defense that has a number of big injuries and the QB should be given time thanks to Ray Rice's ability to run the ball.
Third, Pittsburgh have been better in the Offensive Line in recent games, but this is their toughest test since Week 1... When they were abused by the Baltimore Ravens.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Pittsburgh Steelers 24-21 Baltimore Ravens
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Baltimore Ravens +3.5 Points @ 1.92
