NFL Football
2011-11-06 - New York Giants at New England Patriots
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 9
Sunday 6 November 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is a rematch of the SuperBowl XLII, a memorable one where the New York Giants (5-2) became the first team to beat the New England Patriots (5-2) in that entire season. Now both teams will look to maintain their leads in their respective Divisions and push for a Play Off berth, but both teams need to overcome issues.
The Patriots are coming off a terrible performance at Pittsburgh last week when the Offense struggled to move the chains with any consistency, while the Defense was regularly torched by the Steelers throwing game. The Defense struggled so badly that Bill Belichick decided he would rather try an onside kick with over 2 minutes left of the game and down by 5 than kick off as normal and try and stop the Steelers deep in their own territory with his 3 timeouts.
New York had a tough fight on their hands in their win over the Miami Dolphins last week, but it was thanks to 4th Quarter heroics from Eli Manning and the Offense that allowed them to pull the win and move 2 games clear in the NFC East. However, the Giants have a ridiculously tough schedule to negotiate from now till the end of the season and will need to raise their game to earn more wins.
The Giants Offense should be able to get plenty of success against a New England Secondary that has really stunk up the joint all season. They are struggling to get pressure on the QB up front and that cannot lead to good things against a receiving corps containing the likes of Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz. Nicks is banged up and will miss out, but there are plenty of options for Manning and I expect they will be able to move the chains through the air much like the Steelers did last week.
Running the ball has been tough for the Giants all season and they are earning just 3.2 yards per carry, and I don't think that will be changing too much this week with Ahmad Bradshaw banged up. I expect they will run the ball a little bit to keep the Defense guessing, but it will be through the air and behind Manning's arm that this Offense will earn their success this week.
Tom Brady struggled against the Steelers pressure last week, and it is not the first time the QB has done that over the years. However, Brady and the Patriots lose back to back games as often as Pittsburgh and Baltimore sit down to dinner together, and I expect they will bounce back with a much better performance this week. I expect Brady will find success against a Giants Secondary that has not played all that well this season, although he will have to be careful with the amount of pressure New York send at the opposition QB.
The Patriots can try to slow down any pass rush the Giants send at Brady by running the ball as New York have struggled to contain the run all season, allowing 4.7 yards per carry. BenJarvus Green-Ellis should have a decent day on the ground, although he may have to share carries with Kevin Faulk who seemed to be given plenty of chances last week.
Both teams should be able to move the chains effectively in this contest, and the game could come down to turnovers. Eli Manning has been in control of his Interceptions so far this season, but has had the tendency to getting involved in multi-pick games.
Head to Head
This will be the first meeting since the SuperBowl of 2007, a game the Giants won outright as a double-digit underdog.
The Giants also covered the spread in a regular season meeting in that same season, also as a double-digit dog.
New York are 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games in the series.
New England are 4-3 against the spread this season, New York are 3-3-1.
Other Interesting Trends
New England are 15-5 against the spread in their last 20 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 25-9-1 against the spread in their last 35 games following a straight up loss.
New York are 13-6 against the spread in their last 19 games as the road underdog.
They are 16-6 against the spread in their last 22 games against a team with a winning record at home.
Prediction
I am going to back the New York Giants with a large point advantage to cover the spread at least in this game for the following reasons:
First, the Giants have the Offensive power to take advantage of a suspect New England Secondary and they should be able to move the chains at will.
Second, New England don't have the deep threat playmaker at the moment, and I think the Giants can have some success with their pass rush to give Tom Brady some problems as the Steelers did last week.
Third, I find the Giants definitely raise their play against who they are playing, as shown with decent performances against Philadelphia and Buffalo and suspect ones against Seattle and Miami. They should play up to the Patriots here.
My biggest concern is the way New England can bounce back from losses with Tom Brady and the fact that Eli Manning can sometimes get the yips and begin tossing multiple Interceptions. However, I think the latter will get time in the pocket and I expect the Giants will be able to move the ball at will.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
New England Patriots 31-28 New York Giants
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the New York Giants +9 Points @ 1.95
