NFL Football
2011-11-06 - Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 9
Sunday 6 November 2011 - Kick Off 4:05pm ET
9:05pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The AFC West is going to be a tight race this season as none of the leading contenders have really separated themselves from the pack, not in a good way anyway. The Denver Broncos (2-5) have become detached at the bottom of the Division and find themselves 2 games behind the other 3 teams as they prepare to visit the Oakland Raiders (4-3), a team that is looking to bounce back from an awful performance before their bye week.
With the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Diego Chargers owning the same record as the Raiders, Oakland know they cannot afford to drop games like this if their trade for Carson Palmer is not going to look like the biggest mistake of the season. Palmer was brought in for a 1st Round pick in the next NFL Draft and also another potential 1st Rounder in 2013, but he was expected to finally bring this franchise some more Play Off football.
Palmer is likely to be missing the biggest Offensive weapon the Raiders have as Darren McFadden looks like he has failed to recover from an injury picked up in the loss to the Chiefs. That means Michael Bush will get the bulk of carries today and hope to find success against a Broncos Defense that has only allowed 3.9 yards per carry this season. Oakland have a big Offensive Line and will be looking to use their power to open up the running lanes first and foremost tonight and should find relative success.
That will be the key to the Offense that has not had great play from the QB position this season from Jason Campbell through Kyle Boller and Carson Palmer. Boller and Palmer combined for 6 Interceptions in a blow out loss to the Chiefs last time out, but the extra week from the bye should have given Palmer a chance to understand the Raiders play book and I expect better this week. Denver have generated an effective pass rush so it will be up to Michael Bush to slow this down and Palmer to be given a chance in short and manageable situations.
TJ Houshmandzadeh has been signed to give Palmer a receiver he will be familiar with and I expect he will be used as a security blanket today. The other big news for Oakland is the probable return to Sebastien Janikowski, the kicker with the big leg that can help the Offense put up points even when drives stall at the Denver 40 yard line.
John Fox and the Broncos were asked questions about their QB situation last week as the Offense struggled big time in a blow out loss to the Detroit Lions. Fox announced Tim Tebow will remain the starter, but he has been nothing short of awful for 117 minutes of the 120 minutes he has played as a starter. Take away the final 3 minutes at Miami, and Tebow has looked really bad.
It is not all Tebow's fault though as some of the play calling has been weird, while the receiving corps lost its best player a couple of weeks ago when they traded away Brandon Lloyd to the St Louis Rams. The Offensive Line has struggled to protect Tebow who has been sacked 13 times in the last 2 games and he will not get any respite against an Oakland Defense that loves to get at the QB. I expect the Raiders are going to use the Lions plan from last week and crowd the line of scrimmage and use blitz packages to try and confuse Tebow as much as he was last week.
Willis McGahee should be back in the starting line up after missing the loss last week and may ease some of the pressure on Tebow if he can find running room against an Oakland team that has allowed 4.7 yards per carry. However, if the Raiders decide to crowd the line of scrimmage, there might not be much McGahee can do about it.
Head to Head
Oakland have won 4 games in a row against Denver, both straight up and against the spread, including a 3 point win at Mile High as the underdog in Week 1 this season.
Oakland beat Denver by 16 points here last season, but that was their first win in 3 games at home against the Broncos.
Oakland are 9-2 against the spread in the last 11 games in the series.
The underdog is 8-3 against the spread in the last 11 games in the series.
Oakland are 5-2 against the spread this season, Denver are 2-5.
Other Interesting Trends
Oakland are just 3-13 against the spread in their last 16 games as the home favourite.
They have lost their last 8 games against the spread following a bye week.
They are 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 games against fellow AFC West teams.
The Raiders have won their last 4 games against the spread following a double-digit home loss.
Denver are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road underdog.
They are 5-14 against the spread in their last 19 games against a team with a winning record at home.
They are 2-5-1 against the spread in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss.
Prediction
I am going to back the Oakland Raiders to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Hue Jackson would have taken note of how the Detroit Lions beat Denver last week and will make sure Tim Tebow has to beat the Raiders with his arm, something he has not looked like doing.
Second, teams seem to really take offence to having to play Tebow, as Detroit showed last week, and I think the Raiders will be fired up to prove he does not belong in this company.
Third, Carson Palmer should have a little more chemistry with his receivers now he has had a couple of weeks to study the play book and I expect he will be able to help move the chains.
Fourth, the Denver organisation looks a little frazzled at the moment and I am not sure they are doing everything in their power to help Tebow and are just using this as a chance to show the fans he is not ready to go.
The Pick :
Oakland Raiders 27-13 Denver Broncos
