NFL Football
2011-11-06 - Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 9
Sunday 6 November 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Indianapolis Colts (0-8) came into the season knowing it would be tough without their inspirational leader, Peyton Manning, but even they have to be surprised with how bad they have played so far. The Colts have had some good performances early in the season and were perhaps a touch unfortunate to be losing games, but they seem to have regressed in the last couple of weeks.
The Atlanta Falcons (4-3) have not really played in the same way as they did when finishing with the best record in the NFC last season, but they have turned a corner of late and will know they can start making inroads in the NFC South as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints face one another.
Indianapolis need Curtis Painter and this Offense to find a way to get things going this week as they have begun to struggle to move the chains, with a lot of that down to the fact they have fallen behind in games and been forced to throw the ball to play catch up. Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon and Dallas Clark have all been guilty of failing to help the young QB this season, but they may get more success against an Atlanta Secondary.
The problem for the Colts is their Offensive Line is a little banged up and will face a Falcons team that has found a way to bring down the QB in their last couple of games before their bye week. The Colts can try and negate that rush by running the ball, something the Falcons have struggled to stop all season, although Joseph Addai is not likely to start.
Atlanta were very proud of their QB Matt Ryan who showed some real toughness to return to the game against the Detroit Lions after taking a horrible looking step on his ankle. Ryan led the Falcons to an important road win and put them back in contention in the NFC South and I expect the QB will have a decent day against this Colts Defense that has taken some licks of late.
The Colts Defense has always been one that has struggled against the run, so I expect Michael Turner will be able to move the chains for the Falcons and also give the team a chance to get into short and manageable situations throughout the game. Running the ball also negates the pass rush generated by Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis and will give the Falcons a chance to control field position too.
The receiving corps has also been boosted by the bye week as Julio Jones is expected back in the line up after missing the last game, while Roddy White should also be back to close to full fitness.
Head to Head
Indianapolis beat Atlanta by 18 points in their last meeting back in 2007 in Georgia, covering the spread in that game too.
The Colts have won the last 4 games in the series against the spread.
Indianapolis are 2-6 against the spread this season, Atlanta are 3-4.
Other Interesting Trends
Indianapolis are 5-2 against the spread in the last 7 games as the home underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points. They have lost their last 4 games against the spread following a defeat by 14 points or more.
Atlanta are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games against the spread as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points. They are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games against a team with a losing record.
Prediction
I like the Atlanta Falcons to win and cover in this spot for the following reasons:
First, Indianapolis look like they have given up recently and could probably really do with their bye week to recharge batteries and come back with a renewed focus. They were beaten heavily in their last 2 games and confidence has got to be shot.
Second, the Falcons have enough Offensive power to score points to really put the pressure on Curtis Painter and the struggling passing game. That will also allow the likes of Ray Edwards and John Abraham to get after Painter and force the Colts backwards.
Third, the Colts special teams have begun to play badly too in recent games and that could allow the Falcons to take advantage of short fields and any punting issues the Colts have.
As with my Green Bay pick, I think my biggest concern is whether the bye week has affected the Falcons game in this one, but they are the better team and should be able to have enough success with their Offense to cover the spread.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Indianapolis Colts 16-24 Atlanta Falcons
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Atlanta Falcons -6.5 Points @ 1.95
