NFL Football
2011-11-06 - Green Bay Packers at San Diego Chargers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 9
Sunday 6 November 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Green Bay Packers (7-0) come off their bye week in as strong a position in the NFC North as they were when they went into it as both the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears are trying to keep tabs on the reigning SuperBowl Champions. They get to travel to California to take on the struggling San Diego Chargers (4-3), who are in a real fight with the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders in the AFC West.
There isn't a lot I can say about Green Bay that you wouldn't have heard already, although the QB Aaron Rodgers could be extra motivated as this will be his first professional game played in his home State.
If you have seen the Packers play at all this season, you will know it is almost impossible to stop them moving the chains through the air as they have too many weapons for any Defense to cover. Rodgers doesn't necessarily have a 'favourite' target and is willing to throw to any of his receivers if they get open. The Chargers Secondary have played well this season, but this is clearly their toughest test of the season and they did allow Tom Brady and the New England Patriots throw for 423 yards in an earlier game this season.
Green Bay should also be able to run the ball against a Defense that has allowed 4.4 yards per carry this season, although I expect they will allow Rodgers to make the necessary throws to keep the chains moving.
Philip Rivers has not quite looked like his old self this season which has led to denials that he is actually carrying an injury, but his 7 TD and 11 Interception record for the season has to be a worry. Rivers was in the headlines for all the wrong reasons on Monday Night as he fumbled a snap as the Chargers looked to kill the clock before kicking a winning FG, a mistake magnified by the fact the team lost the game and the lead in the AFC West.
If Rivers can somehow find his passing game again, the Chargers should be fine moving the chains through the air against the Packers Defense that is allowing 288 passing yards per game this season. However, he will need better play from the Offensive Line that really struggled on Monday night as they face a Green Bay team that loves to send an effective pass rush at the QB.
Green Bay have also struggled to stop the run on a consistent basis, but could be facing a San Diego team that is missing Ryan Mathews, although Mike Tolbert is expected to go after missing the loss at Kansas City. The Packers have allowed 4.6 yards per carry this season as the Defense continues to play inconsistently, although I do imagine they have been working on that during the bye.
Head to Head
Green Bay beat San Diego by 7 points at home when they last met in 2007, covering the spread in that game.
The Packers have actually won the last 5 games in the series against the Chargers, covering the spread in every one of those wins.
They won by 17 points in their last visit to San Diego in 2003.
San Diego are 2-5 against the spread this season, Green Bay are 5-2.
Other Interesting Trends
San Diego are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 16-7-1 against the spread in their last 24 games against a team with a winning record on the road.
Green Bay are 18-7-1 against the spread in their last 26 games against a team with a winning record at home.
They are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as the favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Mike McCarthy is 5-0 against the spread in games coming off a bye.
Road favourites are 30-10 against the spread coming off a bye since 2002.
Prediction
I am going to back the Green Bay Packers to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Aaron Rodgers is playing out of his mind this season and has too many receivers for the Chargers to cover so should be able to move the chains at will and put the scoreboard operator to work.
Second, the Chargers are not playing that well of late while Philip Rivers has looked a little strange this season. It will be tough for this Offense to keep up in a shoot-out against the Packers will the lack of sync they have shown this season and field goals will not cut it.
Third, the game is played in California, the first time Rodgers will play a professional game in his home State and that has to give him extra-motivation to put on a show.
My only concern in this game is that teams have struggled a little bit coming off byes this season, but Green Bay were playing so well before that and I have to think they will be able to find continuity in their play as they did to open the season.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
San Diego Chargers 24-34 Green Bay Packers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Green Bay Packers -5.5 Points @ 1.95
