NCAA Football
2011-11-05 - Louisiana State at Alabama
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 10
Saturday 5 November 2011 - Kick Off 8pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)
Preview
It has been billed as the 'game of the century' and many are considering this the unofficial National Championship Game as 2 unbeaten SEC teams meet as the current Number 1 and Number 2 ranked teams in the country. The winner of this game is likely to win the SEC West and will be big favourites to go on and win it all this season.
The Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) have won all 5 games in Conference play as have the LSU Tigers (8-0), but the slight edge has to be given to the Crimson Tide with this game being played at night in Tuscaloosa. Alabama will be supported by over 94,000 people in the Stadium, while the Tigers have been given just 7,000 tickets for the game. The tickets for the game have also been available to buy if you have a spare $20,000 dollars going.
I am not really going to make this a long preview as my others as anything that is to be said about this game has been written by others as the hype for the game began 2 weeks ago and has been gradually building everyday.
The teams are very similar in style to one another and both want to be power running teams that have QBs that can manage the situation and make plays when it is necessary.
Both Defensive units are geared to stop the run and force teams to throw against them and neither has been troubled by opponents so far this season.
This game will be smash mouth football and I would recommend staying up and watching it if you are a fan of College Football as it is going to have some serious repercussions down the stretch.
Head to Head
Louisiana State used some trick plays last season to beat Alabama by 3 points in Baton Rouge in a game they were considered the 6.5 point underdogs.
Alabama beat LSU by 9 points in their last meeting in Tuscaloosa in 2009.
The road team is 11-3-1 against the spread in the last 14 games in the series.
The favourite is 6-2-1 against the spread in the last 9 games in the series.
Alabama are 7-1 against the spread this season, Louisiana State are 6-2.
Other Interesting Trends
Alabama are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They have won their last 5 games against the spread against teams with winning records.
However, the Crimson Tide are just 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games off a bye week.
Louisiana State have won their last 5 games against the spread against teams with winning records.
They are just 3-12 against the spread in their last 15 games in November.
Prediction
I wasn't going to make a pick in this game, but I have entrenched my view significantly enough over the last week to take the Alabama Crimson Tide to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, they have Nick Saban who has been ridiculously good in revenge spots in his career. He has won 12 games in a row against teams that have beaten his the year before, and he usually wins these games big. Even his record with the Miami Dolphins show the majority of his wins came in revenge angles.
Second, I favour the Alabama Defense as it is the most 'NFL-like' in College Football and I think Trent Richardson will be able to wear out the faster, but lighter, LSU Defense.
Third, the home crowd is a huge factor for Alabama here and with this being a night game too.
The Pick :
Alabama 24-13 Louisiana State
