Houston Cougars at UAB Blazers Betting pick | 2011-11-05

NCAA Football

2011-11-05 - Houston Cougars at UAB Blazers

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Houston Cougars @ UAB Blazers
United States: NCAA Football Week 10
Saturday 5 November 2011 - Kick Off 7pm ET
11pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

At the start of the season, the Houston Cougars (8-0) were considered as one of the teams that had the potential of running the table, especially considering Case Keenum had returned to QB the team after an injury curtailed last season for him. They have not disappointed fans with their results so far, although not likely to be involved in a discussion about National Championship due to the Conference they are in, and now face the struggling UAB Blazers (1-7).

Houston are just behind Tulsa in the Conference USA West, but are expected to win that Division, while the Blazers are already out of contention to becoming Bowl eligible this season. Houston are 4-0 in Conference games this season, UAB are 1-4.

Case Keenum and the Houston Offense have been rewriting the record books this season, and Keenum has a chance to become the player with the leading passing yards and most completions this season, with the former of those records likely to be surpassed this week as he needs only 267 more yards through the air.

It is unlikely that the UAB Defense is going to cause too many problems for the Cougars Offense this week. The Secondary has struggled and have allowed 284 yards per game through the air alone this season, while getting minimum pressure on the opposition QB and allowing 70% of passes to be completed.

Keenum has 32 TD passes this season and comes into this one having thrown 9 in the win over Rice last week, and with 10 days to prepare, it is hard to see how the Blazers stop the Cougars through the air. They won't get much respite on the ground either where the Blazers allow 5.1 yards per carry, giving Charles Sims and Michael Hayes a chance to pad their statistics in the Houston backfield.

The question then shifts to whether UAB can keep up with Houston by scoring enough points themselves, but an average of 14 points per game will not really cut it against such a powerful Offense. The Blazers are struggling at the QB position, with Jonathan Perry and Bryan Ellis completing less than 55% of their passes and throwing 10 Interceptions with 4 TDs this season.

Perry really struggled last week in the Blazers blow out loss to Marshall as the team turned the ball over 5 times, with Perry being responsible for 2 Interceptions. The Offensive Line has also struggled to protect the QBs this season and could be in for a long day against the Houston pass rush who average 2.5 sacks per game.

The Blazers best chance of moving the chains may be on the ground against a Houston team allowing 4.3 yards per carry. However, they will be missing Pat Shed, their leading running back for this game and all of this does not bode well for UAB.

Head to Head

Houston smashed UAB by 25 points when they last played in 2008 at home, while they recorded a 39 point win in their last visit to this part of Alabama.

The Cougars are 3-1 against the spread in the last 4 games in the series.

The favourite has won the last 5 games against the spread in the series.

UAB are 5-3 against the spread this season, Houston are 6-2.

Other Interesting Trends

UAB are 19-7-1 against the spread in their last 27 games as the home underdog.

They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home underdog of 10.5 points or more.

They have won their last 4 home games against the spread against a team with a winning record on the road.

Houston are just 3-13 against the spread in their last 16 games as the road favourite.

They have won their last 5 games against the spread against a team with a losing record.

Prediction

I am going to back the Houston Cougars to reverse some trends and win this one in a blowout for the following reasons:

First, this is the most powerful Offense UAB will have faced this season, and they were blown out by lesser teams like Marshall and Tulane.

Second, I find it difficult to envision how the Blazers can keep up in a game where they will give up points. The Offense is averaging just 14 points a game and that should not allow them to get close enough to Houston.

Third, the biggest weakness in the UAB Defense is the pass Defense and that is something the Cougars should thrive on here.

My biggest concerns are Houston have struggled on the road as the favourite in recent games and it is a lot of points to be laying on the road. However, there seems to be too much evidence to suggest UAB will not be able to keep this game close and so I will take a bite of the spread while it is under the 4 TD mark.