Florida State at Boston College Betting pick | 2011-11-03

NCAA Football

2011-11-03 - Florida State at Boston College

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Florida State Seminoles @ Boston College Eagles
United States: NCAA Football Week 10
Thursday 3 November 2011 - Kick Off 8pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)

Preview

This is a big ACC match up on a Thursday evening as the Florida State Seminoles (5-3) try to recover from their mid-season collapse and take a step closer to Clemson who currently lead the way in the Atlantic Division. It won't be easy as they play a Divisional rival in the form of the struggling Boston College Eagles (2-6).

The Seminoles are 3-2 in Conference play this season which leaves them 1.5 games behind Clemson in the Division. Boston College have nothing to play for but the role of being a spoiler as they are just 1-4 against ACC teams this season.

Florida State were ranked as high as Number 13 this season, but they suffered 3 consecutive defeats between Week 3 and Week 6 to leave them unranked. These defeats coincided with an injury to E.J. Manuel and it is only now that the QB is coming back to full fitness which has also seen an upturn in fortunes for the Seminoles.

Manuel and the passing Offense should get plenty of success against the Boston College Secondary that has allowed an average of 252 yards per game through the air. Even the poor Offensive Line play during the season should not be a factor against the Eagles who have struggled to get any kind of pressure on the opposition QB.

The Offense will also use a mix of players at the running back position and they too should have relative success as the Eagles struggle to stop the run. The Offensive Line have not really opened up that many lanes during the season for the Seminoles, but they should be assisted by their opponents.

Boston College themselves will rely on the running of Rolandan Finch to keep the chains moving on the ground- while Finch has been playing well of late and the Offensive Line has opened up chances for him, it won't be easy for the Eagles against a Florida State Defense that has only allowed 2.2 yards per carry this season.

I can imagine the Seminoles will look to stop the run first and foremost in this game as Chase Rettig and the Eagles Offense has really struggled to get any consistency with their passing game. That will not be easy this week either as Florida State have really protected themselves in the Secondary, while bring a really effective pass rush that should be able to get to Rettig consistently in this game too.

Boston College have had a bunch of injuries to deal with this season, especially in the backfield where they will be missing Montel Harris and Tahj Kimble. The Defense has a couple of injuries at the Linebacker and Defensive Line positions, while Nathan Richman will be missing from the Offensive Line.

David Spurlock (C) will be missing for Florida State, while Rashad Greene (WR) is listed as questionable and could be a big miss as he is the leading receiver for the team this season.

Head to Head

Florida State won a close one against Boston College at home last season, but it was the Eagles who won against the spread as the 21.5 point underdogs.

The Eagles are 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games in the series.

Florida State are 2-1 against the spread in the last 3 games played at Boston College.

The road team is 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 games in the series.

Boston College are 3-5 against the spread this season, Florida State are 4-4.

Other Interesting Trends

Boston College are 2-10 against the spread in their last 12 games at home.

They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home underdog of 10.5 points or more.

Florida State are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the favourite of 10.5 points or more.

Prediction

I like Florida State to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, the Offense has found its feet again after a few weeks of suffering as an injured QB really affected them.

Second, Florida State have the run Defense that can force Boston College to take to the air to beat them and that is not the Eagles strength.

Third, Florida State will want to put in a big performance to really amp up the pressure on Clemson and put themselves firmly in the mix to win the ACC Atlantic Division.