NFL Football
2011-10-30 - Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 8
Sunday 30 October 2011 - Kick Off 8:20pm ET
12:20am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The NFC East is still up for grabs for every team in the Division, but it is the 'Dream Team' of the Philadelphia Eagles (2-4) that are most teetering on the edge as another defeat would surely put them in too big a hole to even make the Play Offs. They face Divisional rivals the Dallas Cowboys (3-3) knowing a win would put them fully back in contention in the Division.
There is also a sub plot to this game as Rob Ryan, the Cowboys Defensive Co-Ordinator had made a promise back in the offseason that his Defense will be able to deal with the Eagles. Ryan, much like his brother Rex at the New York Jets, went on to describe Philadelphia as the 'all-hype team', something that has not been lost on the Eagles including Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson.
Dallas had some big injuries early in the season and that has led to some inconsistent displays and their record could have been so much better, but for silly mistakes that have cost the team wins.
Now Tony Romo will have Dez Bryant and Miles Austin at full fitness against an Eagles Secondary that has not played as well as they should be so far considering they have the likes of Nnamdi Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Asante Samuel. Trent Cole returns this week to provide a strong pass rush for the Eagles and he should give the Defense a boost to get after Romo against a Dallas Offensive Line that has had its troubles.
The Eagles biggest weakness has been trying to stop the run and in the middle of the field so I would expect Jason Witten to be targeted often by Romo, while DeMarcus Murray will try to build on his huge day against St Louis last week. Murray is the only healthy back Dallas has as Felix Jones is out injured and Tashard Choice has been cut.
A big test for Philadelphia will be whether they can get their running game going against Dallas who are only allowing 3.3 yards per carry. LeSean McCoy has 6 TDs this season and is going at 5.4 yards per carry while Michael Vick is always likely to pull the ball down and start running.
Rob Ryan does have his Defense line up in exotic packages so they will give Vick a tough time, blitzing him from different areas, but the Secondary will have to stick with the speedy receiving corps the Eagles have. Ryan will look to his Defense to not give Vick the time to find his downfield threats and they should be able to take advantage of an Offensive Line that has struggled to protect Vick.
Head to Head
Dallas have have a 3-1 record in Philadelphia in recent seasons, both straight up and against the spread, and won here by 1 point last season.
The Cowboys have won 4 of the last 5 games in the series, and they are also 5-0 against the spread in that time.
The underdog is 10-4 against the spread in the last 14 games in the series.
Philadelphia are 2-4 against the spread this season, Dallas are 3-2-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Philadelphia are 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games as the home favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.
Andy Reid has led the Eagles to a 9-2 record against the spread following the bye week.
Dallas have won their last 5 games against the spread as the road underdog.
Prediction
I am going to back the Philadelphia Eagles to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Andy Reid has always had his team come out firing from the bye week and they will have additional motivation from Rob Ryan's comments about the team before the season had started.
Second, I think the bye week may also have given the Eagles some time to sort out some of their Defensive problems from the early part of the season.
Third, I am not sure how good DaMarcus Murray is just yet and whether he can get the running lanes opened up as they were last week against St Louis.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Philadelphia Eagles 27-20 Dallas Cowboys
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Over-Hype Team... I mean Philadelphia Eagles -3 Points @ 1.95
