NFL Football
2011-10-30 - Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 8
Sunday 30 October 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
8:15pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
I still can't believe how well the San Francisco 49ers (5-1) have played this season and they already have one foot in the Play Offs, although they could really start making waves if they can keep winning. They face the Cleveland Browns (3-3) whose record looks a lot better than the team is perhaps playing.
The 49ers will come off a bye this week having recorded some big wins in the first portion of their schedule, including at Philadelphia and at Detroit. Jim Harbaugh has the team playing well and it was only a big comeback from the Dallas Cowboys that prevents the team being unbeaten.
Cleveland might be 3-3 this season, but they come into this one having won a snoozefest against the Seattle Seahawks last week which ended 6-3 to the home team in Week 7. The record means they are still in touch in the AFC North, but there are bigger questions about this team and whether Colt McCoy is really the franchise QB they have been looking for.
I didn't think Alex Smith was ever really going to make it as a QB in the NFL, but he has had some real success since Harbaugh took over for the 49ers and is doing what he needs to win games. The Cleveland Defense should provide a challenge for Smith and the Offense as they have been hard to pass on and have also got a very good pass rush.
That means the Offense will rely on Frank Gore and the running game to get things going and keep the chains moving consistently. Cleveland do allow an average of 119 yards per game on the ground so I expect Gore will be able to keep the team in short and manageable situations which will be a help to Alex Smith no end.
Cleveland really struggled to get things going against Seattle last week and it will be no difference against a tough 49ers Defense that has performed very well this season. Colt McCoy is not going to be helped considering Mohamed Massaquoi has been ruled out and Ben Watson is only just coming back from a concussion, while the Offensive Line has struggled to protect McCoy and will face a big pass rush from the 49ers this week.
Peyton Hillis is another player that will not be playing this week and that does not bode well for McCoy either as the 49ers are very good stopping the run. Cleveland have also struggled to run the ball consistently, so McCoy could be left in tough 3rd down situations and then have to face the pass rush I mentioned above.
Head to Head
Cleveland beat San Francisco by 13 points when they last met in 2007.
The Browns also won by 1 point in their last visit to Candlestick Park back in 2003.
San Francisco are 5-0-1 against the spread this season, Cleveland are 1-3-2.
Other Interesting Trends
San Francisco have won their last 4 home games against the spread as the favourite.
Cleveland are 7-0-1 against the spread in their last 8 games as the road underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Prediction
I like the San Francisco 49ers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the 49ers should get more out of their Offense of the two teams and have been playing with a lot of confidence in the early part of this season.
Second, Cleveland have had to travel all the way across the country for this game and were blown out by Oakland in a similar spot.
Third, it is going to be hard for Colt McCoy to keep drives alive without Massaquoi and Hillis in his line up, especially against his pass rush the 49ers have.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
San Francisco 49ers 27-10 Cleveland Browns
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the San Francisco 49ers -8.5 Points @ 1.92
