NFL Football
2011-10-30 - Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 8
Sunday 30 October 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
5pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Baltimore Ravens (4-2) lost a little bit of control of the AFC North after putting down one of their worst Offensive performances in a couple of years last Monday, but they will feel they can get back on the horse ahead of the game against Pittsburgh as they face the struggling Arizona Cardinals (1-5) at home.
Baltimore took almost 38 minutes to get their first 1st down in the loss to Jacksonville on Monday Night Football as they were embarrassed in front of the nation. There was plenty of anger in the locker-room too as the Defensive stars, notably Terrell Suggs, ripped into the Offense for struggling so badly and openly criticised the play calling from the sidelines.
That was one bad game for the Ravens - the Arizona Cardinals are just having a bad season as Kevin Kolb has struggled to justify being the franchise QB for this team who have never recovered from the departure of Kurt Warner at that position. They, like the St Louis Rams, already look dead and buried as far as Play Offs are concerned and I begin to wonder if Larry Fitzgerald will extend his contract out here in the desert.
The Cardinals are going to struggle to get much going against this Ravens Defense that leads the League in scoring Defense. Kolb will at least feel better that Beanie Wells is coming to Baltimore, although he is going to have a tough time running against the Ravens since they are giving up just 3.3 yards per carry so far this season. That means it will be up to Kolb to move the chains.
If the team can't get the ball moving on the ground, that will mean the Offense is left in 3rd and long situations and then nothing will be able to help Kolb. The Arizona Offensive Line has been poor this season and they will not be able to keep the Ravens from coming at the QB and creating sacks. This pass rush has made sure the Secondary is well protected and they are allowing QBs to complete just 52% of their passing attempts this season.
While the Cardinals will likely struggle moving the ball, I expect Baltimore to bounce back from their horrific Offensive performance last week. The Jacksonville Defense is actually a lot better than people expect, but the Cardinals just can't match their intensity and will have a hard time here.
I expect Ray Rice to have a bounce back performance, while Joe Flacco should abuse a Secondary that has struggled to stop anyone this season. Arizona are allowing QBs to throw for just under 275 yards per game, so Anquon Boldin and Torrey Smith should have decent games after a tough Monday night game.
Head to Head
Baltimore last played Arizona in 2007 and won the game here by 3 points.
Arizona are actually 3-1 against the spread in the last 4 games of the series, and they have also gone 3-1 against the spread in games played in Baltimore.
Baltimore are 4-2 against the spread this season, Arizona are 2-4.
Other Interesting Trends
Baltimore are 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 games as the home favourite of 10.5 points or more.
The Ravens are 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 games following a straight up loss. They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a loss as the favourites under John Harbaugh.
Arizona have won their last 4 games against the spread as the underdog of 10.5 points or more. They are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games as the road underdog.
Prediction
I am going to back the Baltimore Ravens to come out and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the team should be extremely angry after the last performance and I think they will come out with a point to prove in this home game.
Second, Arizona are travelling across the country for an early start and usually teams struggle in that spot, let alone a bad team against an angry good team.
Third, Joe Flacco plays better at home so I do expect the Offense will have a much brighter day than last Monday.
Fourth, Arizona are not as good in Defense as the Jaguars so I don't believe they will be able to close down the Ravens in this game.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Baltimore Ravens 31-13 Arizona Cardinals
