NFL Football
2011-10-30 - New Orleans Saints at St Louis Rams
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 8
Sunday 30 October 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
5pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The New Orleans Saints (5-2) showed last week why they are considered as the biggest threat to the Green Bay Packers in the NFC as they totally routed an overmatched Indianapolis Colts team. They now get the opportunity against what looks like another mismatch as they face the St Louis Rams (0-6) whose own season has greatly disappointed fans who expected so much.
We haven't even reached the half way stage to this season, yet I have already run a line through the St Louis Rams for this season as they are 5 games behind the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West as injuries have piled up. Sam Bradford will miss the game this week with a high ankle sprain and it looks like being another tough day in the office for the home team.
AJ Feeley will be given the start at QB and the Rams know they cannot afford to fall behind in this game and let the New Orleans Saints send the dogs after the QB. The Offensive Line have already given up 23 sacks this season, while the Saints have a very effective pass rush who will be able to get after Feeley if he is forced into throwing situations.
The Rams Offense will be leaning on Steven Jackson to be able to pound the ball on the ground as the Saints have struggled to stop teams doing this all season, giving up 5.4 yards per carry. If Jackson manages to do this, he will give Feeley a chance to make short throws to move the chains and will, more importantly, keep Drew Brees and this powerful Offense off the field.
Much like when the Green Bay Packers played St Louis recently, I find it hard to imagine how the Rams Defense will be able to slow this team down and not have them hanging 30 points on them. Mark Ingram will not play this week, but I still anticipate a combination of Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas to be able to punish St Louis on the ground, with the Rams allowing 5.5 yards per carry.
While the pass Defense has played well, the elite QBs like Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees will be able to put up big numbers so I expect the Saints to be able to move the chains at will through the air too. With the amount of weapons Brees has to his disposal, the Rams will simply not be able to cover them all and the Saints should be fine moving the ball barring any mistakes they make to kill their own drives.
Head to Head
New Orleans beat St Louis by 18 points at home last season, and also won by 5 points when they last visited the Rams in 2009. Those games were split 1-1 against the spread.
St Louis have split their last 2 home games against the Saints straight up, but they are just 1-3 in the last 4 at home against the spread.
St Louis have lost all 6 games against the spread this season, New Orleans are 4-3.
Other Interesting Trends
St Louis are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog of 10.5 points or more.
They have lost their last 4 games against the spread as the home underdog.
New Orleans are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road favourite. They are 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games against a team with a losing record.
They are 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games as double-digit favourites.
Prediction
I am going to be a little square and pick the New Orleans Saints to win and cover the large spread which has come down under the two TD mark in the last couple of days. I like the Saints for the following reasons:
First, I don't think the Saints are going to score anything less than 30 points in this game, unless they do a Green Bay and shut up shop in the second half, and it's a lot of point for the Rams to keep up with.
Second, if the Rams fall behind early, they could be forced to abandon the run early and I think AJ Feeley will be under intense pressure for most of the afternoon behind a weak Offensive Line that is giving up far too many sacks this season.
Third, the Rams are struggling so badly at the moment and have not scored more than 10 points in any of their last 4 games.
The only way I think this game ends up being close is if the Saints make mistakes that kill their own drives, or if they are focused on their upcoming schedule against Divisional rivals the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
St Louis Rams 10-31 New Orleans Saints
