Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Betting pick | 2011-10-29

NCAA Football

2011-10-29 - Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Baylor Bears @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
United States: NCAA Football Week 9
Saturday 29 October 2011 - Kick Off 3pm ET
8pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

The Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-0) have benefited more than most from their in-State rivals Oklahoma Sooners loss last week and are now in a position where if they can run the table and win the Big 12, they will likely be playing in the National Championship game. They have some big hurdles to clear first, beginning with the Baylor Bears (4-2) who have lost 2 of their 3 Conference games so far.

You can't talk about the Cowboys without beginning with their powerful Offense that sits in the leading positions for total Offense, scoring Offense and passing Offense. They have moved up to number 3 in the Rankings, their joint highest position in the schools history and with a big chance to move higher after the LSU-Alabama game next week.

Brandon Weeden is completing just under 72% of his passes this season, and he has 19 TDs with 7 Interceptions and he now leads his Offense against a Baylor Defense that has struggled to stop teams in recent weeks. Joseph Randle figures to have another big game, following on from his 4 TDs last week, as he faces a Defense that has allowed 4.8 yards per carry on the ground.

The Bears have allowed at least 26 points in each of their last 4 contests, while the Texas A&M Aggies scored 55 points against them last time out and TCU scored 48 themselves.

While the Oklahoma State Cowboys should be able to move the chains and score points throughout this contest, the Baylor Bears figure to be one team that may be able to match them score for score. Robert Griffin III has been in great form all season, completing 78% of his passes with 22 TDs and 2 Interceptions.

Baylor themselves should have plenty of success passing the ball and grinding it out on the ground, especially against a Oklahoma State Defense who are allowing 431 yards per game in total Defense. The Cowboys have been unable to stop teams on the ground, nor through the air, but they do have an opportunistic team that can create turnovers and that may be the key to the whole game.

Much like the New England Patriots in the NFL last season, the Cowboys find ways to grab Interceptions which allows their Offense to pull away from opponents. They have 15 Interceptions on the season and have also generated a great pass rush that has resulted in 20 sacks, something Baylor may struggle to deal with.

The biggest story coming into the game is whether Justin Blackmon (WR) will be back for the Cowboys. Blackmon has 8 TDs receiving this season and is the biggest Offensive weapon Oklahoma State have, but he was taken out early last week and is listed as questionable this week although I do expect him to play. Hubert Anyiam (WR) was also injured last week and has been ruled out for the rest of the season.

Head to Head

Oklahoma State have won the last 5 games against Baylor, both straight up and against the spread.

The Cowboys ran riot last season when beating the Bears by 27 points at home last season, and they have had plenty of success here against Baylor in recent seasons, winning their last 5 while covering the spread.

The favourite is 11-1 against the spread in the last 12 games in the series.

The home team is 7-2 against the spread in the last 9 games in the series.

Oklahoma State are 6-1 against the spread this season, Baylor are 3-2.

Other Interesting Trends

Oklahoma State are 19-7 against the spread in their last 26 games as the home favourite of 10.5 points or more.

They have won their last 4 games against the spread in Conference play.

Baylor are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog.

They are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games in Conference play.

They are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road underdog of 10.5 points or more.

Prediction

I have seen the line drop down to a number that I feel comfortable taking so I will be backing the Oklahoma State Cowboys again this week for the following reasons:

First, Oklahoma State are more than capable of putting up a points total exceeding 40 points against the Baylor Bears and should be able to move the ball at will.

Second, Baylor may have to take more risks with their passing game and that could lead to mistakes or sacks killing drives against this opportunistic Defense the Cowboys have.

Third, Oklahoma State have a very impressive record against Baylor in recent seasons including a heavy win here last season and I think they will back that up here.