NCAA Football
2011-10-29 - Arkansas Razorbacks at Vanderbilt
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 9
Saturday 29 October 2011 - Kick Off 12:21pm ET
5:21pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Arkansas Razorbacks (6-1) came back from a big deficit last week to beat Ole Miss and they still feel they are relevant in the SEC if they can run the table and hope LSU can beat Alabama. They will hope to knock off another Conference rival as they visit the Vanderbilt Commodores (4-3) whose 3 losses have all come in Conference play.
Arkansas have started slowly in a few games this season, but have found a way to fire back thanks to an Offense that is putting up close to 40 points per game this season. They should find a way to move the chains against the Vanderbilt Defense with their balanced attack.
Tyler Wilson has performed very well from the QB position and actually leads the SEC with over 2000 passing yards, with 12 TD passes and 3 Interceptions on the season. He will have to be careful against a pretty strong Vanderbilt Defense that has also been opportunistic in creating turnovers.
Even when the Commodores met Alabama they did well defensively for the most part, making it hard for the Crimson Tide through the air and on the ground, but were punished by turnovers on short fields. Vanderbilt are only allowing 3.4 yards per carry on the ground this season.
The Commodores beat Army last week to stop a 3 game losing run, and will be starting Jordan Rodgers, the younger brother of Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers. Rodgers is only making his 2nd start for Vanderbilt and he has found it a little difficult so far at this level where he has thrown 2 TD passes and 5 Interceptions.
Rodgers will be very much hoping the running game can keep Vanderbilt moving the chains as they bring their 4.7 yards per carry up against an Arkansas team that is giving up 4.8 yards per carry this season.
The Razorbacks can also be attacked through the air, but Vanderbilt will not want to fall behind early as their Offensive Line has struggled to protect their QBs this season, allowing 2.4 sacks per game. The passing Offense has also struggled for the Commodores this season, although Arkansas' Defense has been a little susceptible all year.
TJ Greenstone (DE) remains doubtful for Vanderbilt having been missing since the Alabama game.
Head to Head
Arkansas beat Vanderbilt by 35 points at home last season, the first meeting between the schools since 2006.
That was the last time Arkansas had visited Nashville as the Razorbacks picked up a 2 point win.
Vanderbilt are 5-2 against the spread this season, Arkansas are 4-3.
Other Interesting Trends
Vanderbilt are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games in Conference play.
They have lost their last 4 games against the spread when considered the home underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Arkansas are 11-3 against the spread in their last 14 games in Conference play.
They are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games as the favourite.
Prediction
I am going to take Arkansas to cover the spread this week for the following reasons, even though they let me down last week:
First, the Vanderbilt Offense could be made to be very one-dimensional if they are a couple of scores down and they don't have the experience at QB to come back against a SEC rival at this moment.
Second, Arkansas should be able to score points against the Commodores, even if it is through getting turnovers and having short fields, and it will be tough for Vanderbilt to keep up.
Third, I think the Razorbacks will be a little more focused this week after their scare at Ole Miss last week and will not let the game get as out of hand as it almost did last Saturday.
The Pick :
Vanderbilt 17-31 Arkansas Razorbacks
