NCAA Football
2011-10-29 - South Carolina at Tennessee
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, October 29th, 2011, 7:15PM US
(12:15AM GMT)
PREVIEW
The last time I had a bet on South Carolina they cost me in the most annoying fashion. Up by 4, they chose to take a safety just to hold on to the ball as time expired and my bet on Mississippi State went down by the slimmest of margins. Not happy at all. This time, I'll go against the GameCOCKS!
South Carolina suffered a huge blow in that game, as their star running back, Marcus Lattimore, went down with a knee injury that means his season is done. Tennessee have a problem too, as their QB Tyler Bray has a broken thumb, meaning freshman Justin Worley takes over as QB. Guess where he comes from? South Carolina. And this is his first start, against the school that refused to take him when he finished high school as a national champion. Talk about motivation.
Lattimore was the 2nd best rusher in the SEC, and 13th best in the country. Him not playing takes a lot out of the South Carolina offence. Lattimore has accounted for 818 rushing yards, no small amount of yardage. Not having him means there is pressure on Connor Shaw to continue winning.
The South Carolina Gamecocks are now on a 4 away game winning streak, a school record. Shaw's QB performance in the last match was not impressive though, and he will be seriously tested here. In that match against Mississippi State, it took until the final 4 minutes of the game for Shaw to finally hit WR Alshon Jeffery with a 4 yards pass for the go ahead TD. I wasn't impressed.
The rushing game will rest on the shoulders of Brandon Wilds, a true freshman who has only 13 carries all season. Shaw will clearly be tasked with winning this game, but his 5 TDs and 2 interceptions don't convince me at all. They might move the chains, but Tennessee will play them very, very hard. I expect South Carolina to have to kick more FGs than they will score TDs.
The Tennessee Volunteers have won 3 of the last 6 meetings, and not lost at home to South Carolina in that time. In fact, the Vols have won 14 of 15 meetings at home against the Gamecocks, and will be eager not to break that impressive mark, seeing as South Carolina won last years meeting at their place 38-24.
BETTING VERDICT
I'll go with Tennessee here as they have a decent chance at the outright upset win that Mississippi State almost managed last week.
At home, I have to take the Vols.
The Pick :
Tennessee +3.5
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Tennessee +3.5 @ 1.95 (or -110)
