NFL Football
2011-10-23 - Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 7
Sunday 23 October 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is a game that could have big Play Off implications come January for the two NFC teams, and should be a decent one for the London crowd at Wembley to enjoy. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) are the 'home' team and have been in England since the start of the week, while the Chicago Bears (3-3) flew in on Friday.
Tampa Bay bounced back from an awful performance at San Francisco to beat the New Orleans Saints last week at home and now sit on top of the NFC South, although both the Saints and Falcons are more than in touch with them. Josh Freeman had his best game of the season as he looked more assured than he has at any point so far.
LeGarrette Blount will be missing again for the Buccaneers this week, but Earnest Graham was in fine form last weekend and should be able to perform well against a surprisingly weak Bears Defense. Chicago shut down Adrian Peterson last week, but they have been giving up 5.4 yards per carry on the ground this season.
With the run likely to be established, Freeman should be able to make some plays against the Chicago Defense through the air too and keep Tampa Bay moving up and down the field. He will want to stay out of long passing downs as the Bears still manage to get a pass rush, even if Julius Peppers is hampered with an injury.
Chicago may have had a complete win over Minnesota last week, but there are clearly some issues to address at the team. Many of the players remain unhappy that Matt Forte has not been given a new contract while Jay Cutler told Mike Martz to 'fu*k himself' during the game last week. Lance Briggs openly addressed his concerns about the way the atmosphere is developing in Chicago right now.
The Bears will at least be content with the fact their Offensive Line looked a lot better last week against the Vikings and gave Cutler plenty of time to make his throws in the backfield. Cutler was only sacked 1 time last week, having been sacked 19 times this season, and I expect the Bears will use similar packages from the game against Minnesota here.
It may not be such a concern against Tampa Bay that have struggled to get a pass rush going in the last couple of weeks and who will be missing Gerald McCoy. That means Cutler should be able to get things moving through the air.
The key to the whole contest could be whether Tampa Bay can stop Chicago running on them. Only the 49ers managed to really get things going on the ground against the Buccaneers this season, but they have allowed 4.4 yards per carry so I can see Forte having another solid outing here.
With both sides looking pretty similar, Tampa Bay may hold the slight edge having played here in London before, but I am not sure how much of an edge that will be in a stadium where there should be a LOT of Bears fans in attendance.
Head to Head
The last 3 meetings between these teams have been decided by 3 points each, the last of those going to Tampa Bay, but the previous 2 going to the Bears.
Tampa Bay are 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games in the series between the teams.
Tampa Bay are 3-3 against the spread this season, Chicago are 2-4.
Other Interesting Trends
Tampa Bay are 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games where they are the underdogs of between 0.5 and 3 points.
Chicago are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last 4 games as the favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.
However, they are 1-7-2 against the spread in their last 10 games as the road favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.
Prediction
These teams are very evenly matched to be honest when looking at their strengths and weaknesses, but I am going to back the Chicago Bears to cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Tampa Bay have been inconsistent in their play this season and it is hard to figure out how they are going to play from one week to the next.
Second, Chicago played the run very well last week against Minnesota and will have plenty of success in this game if they can match that against Tampa Bay.
I don't have a lot I can say about this game, but I think the Bears have the slight edge, as long as the fact the game is played in England is not going to be the key factor.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17-20 Chicago Bears
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Chicago Bears -1 Point @ 1.92 (Coral)
