NFL Football
2011-10-23 - Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 7
Sunday 23 October 2011 - Kick Off 7:20pm ET
8:20am (British Standard Time)
Preview
You can just see the guys in the NBC executive offices deciding which game to show live on prime time this Week and noticing the Indianapolis Colts (0-6) could be led by Peyton Manning against the team Manning's father performed for, the New Orleans Saints (4-2). However, the Colts have been awful without their QB this season and this looks a mismatch.
While the Colts are missing their Peyton, the Saints will be missing their Payton, namely the Head Coach Sean Payton who injured his leg last week in the loss at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Payton is also the Offensive Co-Ordinator for the Saints and will be coaching from the booth in this game and it will be interesting to see how the Saints react to his absence on the sidelines.
Drew Brees struggled for the Saints last week, throwing 3 Interceptions as New Orleans were beaten by the Buccaneers, but I don't think he will have that kind of game against a Colts Defense that cannot defend the pass or stop the run. The Colts are giving the opposition QB the chance to complete 70% of their passing attemps, while their own pass rush is almost ineffective once the team falls behind.
The Colts have at least tried to play the run a little better and force teams to beat them in the air, but that has not been a problem for the likes of Matt Cassel and Andy Dalton, so I can't see it being a problem for Drew Brees.
Indianapolis have been playing better since taking Kerry Collins out of the starting line up and letting Curtis Painter take over, and it has only been a couple of really dumb plays by their veteran players that have cost them a chance of getting their first win of the season.
The Colts should be able to run the ball against the Saints who are allowing 5.1 yards per carry so I expect Delone Carter and Donald Brown to earn some success on the ground. That will also give the Offense a chance to protect Curtis Painter from the Saints pass rush and for him to try and hit his receivers.
New Orleans have also given up a few big plays through the air and could be in a bit of trouble if Painter can find time in the pocket. If he is given help from the running game, Indianapolis could definitely have some success in this game.
Head to Head
New Orleans beat Indianapolis by 14 points when they met in the SuperBowl a couple of seasons ago.
The two sides last played each other in a regular season game in 2007, with the Colts winning by 31 points at home.
New Orleans are 3-3 against the spread this season, Indianapolis are 2-4.
Other Interesting Trends
New Orleans are just 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home favourite of 10.5 points or more. They are 2-10 against the spread in their last 12 games against a team with a losing record.
Favourites of 12.5 points or more are 7-28 against the spread when coming in off a road loss as the favourite.
Indianapolis are 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 games as the underdog of 10.5 points or more. They are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games as the road underdog of 10.5 points or more.
Teams with a record of 0-5 or worse are 9-1 against the spread in 10 games since 2002 as double-digit road underdogs.
Prediction
I am going to have a small interest on the Indianapolis Colts to cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, there are a couple of trends above that I really like that back the Colts to keep this close.
Second, New Orleans may not been fully focused on this game as Sean Payton has been away from the team having his surgery and he may not have devised a full plan for this game.
Third, Indianapolis can score points, although not to the same level as when Peyton Manning is under Center, and they may be able to do enough to stay within double-digits.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
New Orleans Saints 27-17 Indianapolis Colts
