Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins Betting pick | 2011-10-23

NFL Football

2011-10-23 - Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Denver Broncos @ Miami Dolphins
United States: NFL Football Week 7
Sunday 23 October 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

The Miami Dolphins (0-5) have been, unsurprisingly, failing to see tickets for their home games for some time so what a good idea from the PR team to announce they will be honouring the Florida Gators National Championship winners on this day. I mean it's a great idea considering their big rivals, the Miami Hurricanes actually use this as their home stadium, but there is more to the story.

The QB of that Gators team that won the National Championship will definitely be in the stadium on Sunday afternoon... Quarterbacking the Denver Broncos (1-4). Stephen Ross and the 'celebrity' owners of the Dolphins have fallen another huge step in my estimation.

Tim Tebow will be making his first start for the Denver Broncos this season and this will not feel like a road game with so many fans that supported him at College expected to be in attendance. He will have to make do without the best receiver the team had now that Brandon Lloyd has been traded away, but Denver still feel comfortable with what they have.

Tebow himself either has his critics or his supporters, and both are passionate in their arguments as to whether this guy can make is as a QB in the NFL. His scrambling ability should make it tough for the Dolphins to keep tabs on the Bronco Offense, while the Miami Secondary is so banged up that I also expect Tebow to move the chains using his arm.

It is hard to see how the Dolphins stop Denver moving the chains as they won't be able to cope with the dual threat Tebow provides, as well as Willis McGahee who is running hard at the moment. With little to no pass rush being generated by the Fins, Denver should be able to go up and down the field here barring any Interceptions.

Miami are also going to be coping with a terrible Monday Night Football performance, the second of the season, when everything that could go wrong did go wrong. Dropped catches, players inexplicably running out of bounds, and defenders allowed to mug the receivers meant they had plenty of chances to win the game, let alone cover, but failed to get the job done.

Matt Moore was not as horrible as his statistics suggested, but he did misread a couple of plays and missed open receivers who would have been able to walk in for TDs. The other issue was more his own doing as he decided to continuously throw at Darrelle Revis for some reason?!

While I can see Denver moving the chains, it is harder to see how Miami are going to do the same. Reggie Bush should be in the line up to share the carries with Daniel Thomas, but Denver do not allow huge amounts of yardage on the ground.

The Broncos also have a really good pass rush, something that does not bode well for the Miami Offensive Line which has been struggling all season to keep their QB upright. Matt Moore's scrambling ability should allow him to escape some of the pressure, but he could be under duress for much of the afternoon and things will only get worse if the Dolphins fall behind.

Head to Head

Miami have won all 7 home games with Denver in the past, although they have been horrible at home for almost 2 years now.

Miami have won the last 2 games in the series, the last coming at Mile High in 2008. The Dolphins have won the last 6 games against the spread in the series.

The underdog has won the last 4 games against the spread in the series.

Both teams are 1-4 against the spread this season.

Other Interesting Trends

Miami are 17-47-1 against the spread in their last 65 home games. They are 16-39-2 against the spread in their last 57 home games against a team with a losing record.

Denver are 16-33-3 against the spread in their last 52 games against a team with a losing record. They are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 road games.

Prediction

I like the Denver Broncos in this game for the following reasons:

First, Miami must be emotionally flat after that Monday Night loss to their Divisional rivals the New York Jets and I am not sure how they can get up for this game.

Second, the rumour is Tony Sparano will be fired if the team doesn't win this week and the Dolphins have looked like they have given up on the Head Coach who they actively looked to get rid of in the off-season.

Third, Tim Tebow is sure to raise all his team-mates for this game and will be boosted by a pro-Tebow crowd. He is a better leader than Kyle Orton and you could see how everyone was lifted when he came in against San Diego 2 weeks ago.

The Statistics :

MIAMI DOLPHINS LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-09-18	L	13-23	H v Houston Texans
	2011-09-12	L	24-38	H v New England Patriots
	2010-12-26	L	27-34	H v Detroit Lions
	2010-12-19	L	14-17	H v Buffalo Bills
	2010-12-05	L	10-13	H v Cleveland Browns
	2010-11-18	L	0-16	H v Chicago Bears

DENVER BRONCOS LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-10-02	L	49-23	A v Green Bay Packers
	2011-09-25	L	17-14	A v Tennessee Titans
	2010-12-19	L	39-22	A v Oakland Raiders
	2010-12-12	L	43-13	A v Arizona Cardinals
	2010-12-05	L	10-6	A v Kansas City Chiefs
	2010-11-22	L	35-14	A v San Diego Chargers