NFL FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - ATLANTA FALCONS @ DETROIT LIONS

NFL Football

2011-10-23 - Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions
United States: NFL Football Week 7
Sunday 23 October 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)

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Preview

The Detroit Lions (5-1) lost their unbeaten record last week against the San Francisco 49ers and now have to get back on the horse as they are visited by last seasons NFC regular season winner, the Atlanta Falcons (3-3).

The Lions were always going to have a tough time winning the NFC North thanks to the presence of the Green Bay Packers, but the loss last week was overshadowed by the Jim Schwartz-Jim Harbaugh furore after the handshake at the end of the game. A bigger concern for the team will be the projected loss of Jahvid Best for the next couple of weeks as he is suffering from concussion.

Detroit tried to trade for Ronnie Brown before the trade deadline to cover Best's absence, but that was voided because Jerome Harrison, a player due to go over to the Eagles, is unfortunately suffering from a brain tumour, although the trade may well have saved his life.

I don't expect the Lions to have a lot of success running the ball in this game against an Atlanta team that is only giving up 3.8 yards per carry this season. The problems will develop from here as the Falcons can generate a pass rush and the Offensive Line of Detroit was abused last week by the 49ers.

Stafford was sacked 5 times last week and should have plenty of pressure in his face if Detroit can't run the ball this week, with the likes of Ray Edwards sure to get involved in the backfield.

While I expect Detroit to struggle running the ball, I really think Michael Turner and the Atlanta Falcons will be able to do that consistently against a Lions front 4 that love rushing the passer but have not been able to stop the run. Detroit have given up 5 yards per carry this season, and now they face Turner who is coming in off a 2 TD, 139 yard performance.

With Turner expected to be able to move the ball consistently, Matt Ryan should be dealing with plenty of short and manageable situations, although he is missing Julio Jones in his receiving corps. Detroit have been strong against the pass this season, with their front 4 causing all sorts of problems in the backfield. However, if the Falcons run the ball properly, they should be able to give Ryan enough time to take aim at the Secondary.

Head to Head

The teams last met in 2008, with the Falcons winning comfortably at home.

Detroit beat Atlanta the last time they hosted them in 2006.

The Falcons are 4-2 against the spread in the last 6 meetings in the series.

Detroit are 4-1-1 against the spread this season, Atlanta are 2-4.

Other Interesting Trends

Detroit are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home favourite.

They are 13-3-1 against the spread in their last 17 games against teams from the NFC.

Atlanta are 13-6 against the spread in their last 19 games as the road underdog.

They are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record at home.

Prediction

I am going to take the Atlanta Falcons to cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, Atlanta should be able to move the ball consistently in this game through Michael Turner and should allow Matt Ryan to hurt them when the pass rush slows down.

Second, Detroit are missing Jahvid Best and could find it hard to run the ball, making them one-dimensional, and allowing the likes of Ray Edwards and John Abrahams to get after Matt Stafford.

Third, Detroit must be a little down after losing their long unbeaten record and they may just be doubting themselves a little bit.


The point spread at Ladbrokes is 4 points and that looks a lot of points to give up against a team that should be able to move the ball against the Lions consistently.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :

I'll back the Atlanta Falcons +4 Points @ 1.90