NFL Football
2011-10-23 - Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 7
Sunday 23 October 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Minnesota Vikings (1-5) play another NFC North rival this week with the sole intention to perform better than they did last week when they were embarrassed by the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football. Performing better may not lead to a better looking scoreline though as they face the extremely hot Green Bay Packers (6-0).
The big news in Minnesota is the fact they have decided to bench Donovan McNabb and will now be giving Christian Ponder, the rookie QB, his first start of the season after the latter played fairly well in relief last week at Soldier Field. Ponder will hope to help a Vikings Offense that is passing for just 168 yards per game this season, and he should get a chance against this Green Bay Defense that has struggled in that aspect of the game.
The problem for Ponder will be dealing with the blitz as you just know Dom Capers is going to send his dogs after him early and for the length of the game. With the Vikings Offensive Line struggling, I can see AJ Hawk, Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson having a few sacks.
One way to slow the pass rush will be through the use of Adrian Peterson who has helped the Vikings through to 142 yards per game on the ground, but he was really restricted by the Bears last week and faces a Packers Defense that has been stout against the run all season.
As I said last week in my preview for the Packers-Rams game, there really isn't a lot I can say about Aaron Rodgers that you will not have read or know anyway. He is leading this Green Bay Offense to scoring as many points as they want, and he has far too many Offensive weapons for the Vikings (and most teams) to cover.
While the Vikings have been decent against the run for most of the season, they did allow a couple of running backs to reach 100 yards on the ground in the last 3 weeks and so I expect Green Bay to get some gains from that side of their Offense.
Minnesota's most success may come from the fact they can get pressure on the QB, although that was not evident last week against the Bears, and they should be able to get something going against this Offensive Line which is a little banged up at the moment. This may bother Rodgers a couple of times, but it won't affect him putting up the numbers we have become accustomed to over the last 12 months.
Head to Head
Green Bay demolished a Brett Favre led Minnesota twice last season, including a 31-3 beatdown in this stadium.
That win last season was the first time they had won in Minnesota since Brett Favre left Wisconsin.
The Packers improved to 6-2 against the spread in the last 8 meetings with their 2 wins last season.
Green Bay are also 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games played in Minnesota.
Minnesota are 2-3-1 against the spread this season, Green Bay are 5-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Minnesota are 2-10-1 against the spread in their last 13 games as the underdog.
However, they are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games as the road underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 0-6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games against teams from the NFC North.
The Vikings are 1-7-1 against the spread in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.
Green Bay are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 21-10 against the spread in their last 31 games against teams from the NFC North.
Aaron Rodgers is 28-13 against the spread in his 41 games started since 2009.
Prediction
I really like the Green Bay Packers to cover the spread and want to lock it in at the 8.5 points available at Coral rather than letting the line continuously move upwards. I like the Packers for the following reasons:
First, the line still looks wrong as Minnesota should not be considered just 2 points worse than Atlanta who were 6.5 point underdogs against the Packers a couple of weeks ago. This becomes even more so when considering the Vikings are starting a rookie for the first time this week.
Second, Green Bay are scoring far too many points and will be fully focused in making sure they get this Divisional win on the road.
Third, there are a couple of big trends going against Minnesota this week, including teams coming off a 14 + beating from a Divisional rivals go 14-28 against the spread in their next game if they face another Divisional rival.
Fourth, I just can't see Minnesota keeping up in this game against the Packers, especially in the dome where the Packers speed is even more explosive, and it is asking too much of a rookie to compete with one of the best, if not THE best, QB in the NFL in what could amount to a shoot-out.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Minnesota Vikings 17-34 Green Bay Packers
