NCAA Football
2011-10-22 - Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 8
Saturday 22 October 2011 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
I don't think it is a stretch to suggest this will be the biggest game of the weekend in the NCAA as the Wisconsin Badgers (6-0) play their toughest game of the season when they visit the Michigan State Spartans (5-1). Both teams have opened with 2-0 records in the Big Ten this season.
The Badgers have been one of the most exciting teams to watch in the nation and have put themselves in contention to be spoken about in any National Championship conversation with their start, but Wisconsin know they will need to run the table and hope for a couple of slip ups from the higher ranked teams for that to happen. This is the first of a couple of tough tests for Wisconsin as they face Ohio State next week.
All the talk about Wisconsin has surrounded the arrival of Russell Wilson, a QB that has given them big playmaking ability through the air and on the ground. The Badgers have found almost a 50-50 balance in moving the chains, earning 257 yards on the ground and 265 through the air, but this is the toughest Defense they will face.
Michigan State are allowing just 67 yards per game on the ground and a pitiful 2.2 yards per carry which gives the rest of the Defense a chance to get after the QB and protect themselves against the pass. They have only allowed 119 passing yards per game and have managed to get to the QB 3.5 times per game.
The big key to this game will be how the Wisconsin Offensive Line can protect Wilson against the speedy pass rush Michigan State provide. The Badgers OL has been likened to a pro football line as there are so many huge bodies in there, but their agility will be tested to the limit here.
Another thing to consider is as good as Michigan State's Defense has played, they were heavily abused in a blowout loss to Notre Dame earlier this season and this is the best Offense they have faced since then.
The other side of the ball could be interesting too as the Wisconsin Defense is a lot better than people may think considering they have not been given the plaudits the Offense has. Wisconsin have been very impressive defending the pass, allowing just 144 yards through the air per game and giving up 3 passing TDs and taking away 7 Interceptions.
That points to this being a difficult game for Kirk Cousins at QB for the Spartans- Cousins has 8 TD passes and 4 Interceptions this season and could be forced into additional action if the running game does not get going this week.
The Spartans have picked up 3.8 yards per carry this season and could find it difficult to get things going against the Badgers if they perform much more in line with their season averages rather than their poor performance on the ground last week against Indiana.
Wisconsin is also very capable of getting a pass rush generated, so Cousins will want to avoid falling into 3rd and long situations if the Spartans want to move the chains with any consistency.
A problem for the Spartans could be the Offensive Line which has taken a number of injuries recently and are short of depth. The other major loss for the team is William Gholston (LB) who has been suspended for this match having been caught on film punching a Michigan player last week.
Nick Toon (WR), Russell Wilson's top target for Wisconsin, has been upgraded to probable for this game having missed the win over Indiana. Marcus Trotter (LB) has not played since the opening game of the season and is still listed as questionable for this week.
Head to Head
Wisconsin were beaten here easily last season as Michigan State moved on with a 10 point win. That was actually the 3rd straight time the Spartans have beaten the Badgers at home, going 2-1 against the spread in that time.
The home team is 4-2 against the spread in the last 6 games in the series.
Michigan State are 4-2 against the spread this season, Wisconsin are 5-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Michigan State are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as the home underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points. However, they are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games in Conference play.
They are also 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games against a team with a winning record.
Wisconsin are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points. They have won their last 8 games against the spread in Conference play.
They have won their last 6 games against the spread against a team with a winning record.
Prediction
I do like Wisconsin in this game and I am going to lock the bet in now the line has moved down to the key number 7. I like Wisconsin for the following reasons:
First, I can't help but think Notre Dame took care of this Defense and Wisconsin have the better Offense than the Fighting Irish and will also be able to get things going.
Second, Michigan State will be using their Offense against the strength of Wisconsin's Defense, one that will be able to create turnovers.
Third, Russell Wilson is definitely the better QB in this game and I think he is capable of hurting teams on the ground and through the air and this dual threat will keep the Spartans Defense off balance.
Fourth, if Wisconsin go up with a double-digit lead, it will be hard for the Spartans to come back as their Offense will become one-dimensional and allow the Badgers to pin back their ears and get after Cousins at QB.
I know there are a lot of 'experts' out there tipping Michigan State to perhaps cause a surprise this week, but I feel Wisconsin have been underrated big time, while the loss of William Gholston could be another telling factor against the Spartans.
This should be an intriguing game to watch, but I expect the Badgers will show the nation they are 'for real' with an impressive road win.
The Pick :
Michigan State 17-30 Wisconsin Badgers
