NCAA Football
2011-10-22 - Arkansas Razorbacks at Ole Mississippi
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 8
Saturday 22 October 2011 - Kick Off 12:21pm ET
5:21pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Arkansas Razorbacks (5-1) would likely be the favourites to win their Division if they were based in the SEC East, but unfortunately they are in the West alongside LSU and Alabama so finishing behind those two powerhouses will be an achievement. They face the Ole Mississippi Rebels (2-4) in an SEC West game on Saturday afternoon.
The Razorbacks are 1-1 in Conference play this season, Ole Miss are 0-3 following their blowout loss to Alabama at home last week.
Arkansas' one defeat this season came against Alabama when their Offense could not get things going, although that has been the exception rather than the rule this season. The Razorbacks average 466 yards of total Offense and come into this game having destroyed the Auburn Tigers last time out.
Tyler Wilson has been playing very well at QB, throwing 12 TDs and 3 Interceptions and the team have averaged 336 yards per game through the air. They should be able to move the chains with Wilson, but they have looked to use their running game a lot more and figure to get plenty of success on the ground against a Rebels Defense that has given up 225 yards per game on the ground.
Bobby Petrino has made it a point to say his team does not want to be throwing the ball '50 times a night' so I expect a heavy dose of the ground attack which should keep the chains moving.
The Razorbacks Defense has been disappointing against the rushing attack of opponents so far this season, giving up 188 yards per game on the ground, but they have been much better against the pass. Arkansas have given up 6 TD passes this season but have also picked up 6 Interceptions.
I expect they will have a decent day again this week after limiting Auburn to 104 passing yards, although they were hammered on the ground again. The key to their game will be trying to slow down the amount they give up on the ground and force the Ole Miss Rebels into becoming one-dimensional by building a lead as early as possible.
The Rebels are struggling to move the ball with any consistency, with the ground game averaging just 3.1 yards per carry while they are averaging just 150 yards per game through the air. Ole Miss will look to Ronnie Wingo to get things going on the ground, but this game could quickly move away from them as Arkansas have an effective pass rush as well as the capabilities to grab Interceptions.
The Ole Miss Rebels have struggled Defensively and will be missing Marcus Temple (CB) and Wayne Dorsey (DE) in this game as they were injured against Alabama last week. The 4 suspended players that were missing against Alabama last week will all be returning for this game.
Isaac Madison (CB) could return for Arkansas this week after missing the last 2 games. Robert Thomas (DT) could also return although his status has been set as questionable this week.
Head to Head
Arkansas beat Ole Miss by 14 points at home last season, their first win since 2007.
Arkansas lost on their last visit to the Rebels, but had won 2 games here previously. The Razorbacks are 6-1 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series.
The favourite are 6-1 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series.
Ole Miss are 2-4 against the spread this season, Arkansas are 4-2.
Other Interesting Trends
Ole Miss are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home underdog of 10.5 points or more.
They have lost their last 4 games against the spread in Conference play.
Arkansas have lost their last 4 games against the spread as the road favourite of 10.5 points or more. They are 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 games in Conference play.
Prediction
I like Arkansas to record the big win on the road for the following reasons:
First, the Razorbacks should be able to score at will against this Ole Miss Defense that has struggled to stop teams, while the Razorbacks have an extremely powerful Offense.
Second, on the other hand, I find it difficult to see how Ole Miss can score enough points to keep up, especially when they fall behind as I expect they will.
Third, the turnover happy Arkansas Defense should be able to force a couple more as Ole Miss are forced to throw the ball to keep up and that could lead to short fields and extending the lead.
Fourth, Ole Miss could be on a downer after being decimated by Alabama here last week while the Razorbacks should be fully focused coming off a bye.
The Pick :
Ole Mississippi 17-41 Arkansas Razorbacks
