NCAA Football
2011-10-22 - Oklahoma State at Missouri Tigers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 8
Saturday 22 October 2011 - Kick Off 12pm ET
5pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is a huge game for the Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-0) as they face a Big 12 rival, the Missouri Tigers (3-3), at a venue where the latter has won their last 10 contests. The Cowboys are 3-0 in Big 12 play, Missouri are 1-2.
Oklahoma State come into this contest having secured another big win this season when knocking off the Texas Longhorns 38-26 on the road last week. Brandon Weeden struggled in that game, throwing for a season low 218 yards and only 56% completion rate on his passes, far below his season average of 374 yards and 72% completion rate.
Even with Weeden not playing to his usual high standard, the team managed to move the chains through the running of Jeremy Smith and proved that they can score points and keep drives alive in other ways rather than just through the arm of Weeden.
It is an interesting matchup for the Cowboys as they will be facing a Missouri Defense that has been very strong through the air, allowing just 7 passing TDs this season. The Tigers have allowed 224 yards per game through the air, although it is worth pointing out that the Oklahoma Sooners racked up 448 yards passing in their game with Missouri earlier this season.
Missouri also have plenty of success getting to the QB so the Cowboys will need their rushing game to at least keep the rush down, although the Tigers are only allowing 3 yards per carry this season.
The Tigers themselves rank at 13th in the nation when it comes to total Offense and they figure to get plenty of success with their run game against a Cowboys Defense that allows 176 yards per game on the ground. Henry Josey should have another big game for Missouri, while James Franklin provides a dual threat from the QB position.
Franklin has rushed for 7 TDs this season while he also has 10 TD passes with just 4 Interceptions. The biggest danger for the QB will be the pass rush Oklahoma State have generated this season, already recording 19 sacks, while the Defense may give up a lot of yards but provide plenty of turnovers too. In fact, they have 17 turnovers in their last 4 games, including 3 at Texas last week.
Oklahoma State's success has come about by building big leads and then allowing their opportunistic Defense to get after the QB and force turnovers, and that could be the key to this game too.
Will Ebner (LB) is out indefinitely for Missouri, while Terrell Resonno and Brayden Burnett will be missing on the Defensive Line.
Head to Head
Oklahoma State beat Missouri by 16 points at home in 2009, meaning they have now won 3 of the last 4 against the Tigers both straight up and against the spread.
The Cowboys have won the last 2 games at Missouri, both straight up and against the spread.
The road team is 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games in the series.
Missouri are 4-2 against the spread this season, Oklahoma State are 5-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Missouri are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games in Conference play.
They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the underdog.
However, they are just 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record on the road.
Oklahoma State are 23-6-1 against the spread in their last 30 games as the road favourite.
They are 13-2-1 against the spread in their last 16 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games in Conference play.
Prediction
I like the Oklahoma State Cowboys to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Cowboys have one of the most explosive passing Offenses in the nation, and we saw Oklahoma hurting Missouri through the air in their meeting with them earlier this season.
Second, the Cowboys have an opportunistic Defense that can cause turnovers and that should give Oklahoma State a chance to pull away.
Third, Missouri may be forced to throw the ball to keep up and that could lead to problems against a very good pass rush the Cowboys possess.
This should be a fascinating game and there is the potential of a surprise result, I just feel the Cowboys are still underrated by the layers and they have been into intimidating atmospheres before and prevailed.
It should be high scoring, but I think the Cowboys will have pulled away late and I would definitely lock in the 6.5 point spread before it moves back up to 7.
The Pick :
Missouri Tigers 28-38 Oklahoma State Cowboys
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Oklahoma State Cowboys -6.5 Points @ 1.92
