North Carolina at Clemson Tigers Betting pick | 2011-10-22

NCAA Football

2011-10-22 - North Carolina at Clemson Tigers

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

North Carolina Tar Heels @ Clemson Tigers
United States: NCAA Football Week 8
Saturday 22 October 2011 - Kick Off 12pm ET
5pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

This is an ACC game between two teams that are likely to have different ambitions for the rest of the season as the Clemson Tigers (7-0) take on the North Carolina Tar Heels (5-2). Clemson are 4-0 in Conference play this season, while North Carolina are 1-2.

For many seasons, Clemson have started off by raising their fans expectations with surprising wins, only then to lose a game when considered the big favourites and it looked like being a case of Deja Vu last week as the Tigers fell far behind Maryland in a game they were expected to win after beating Florida State and Virginia Tech this season.

However, the Tigers now have a quick strike Offense that is capable of putting up a bunch of points quickly behind the stellar play of Tajh Boyd, a QB who has thrown 19 TD passes and just 3 Interceptions this season. While Boyd is receiving plenty of praise, the Tigers' Sammy Watkins was exceptional last week as he scored a Special Teams TD as well as improving his receiving TDs to 8 for the season.

It would be surprising if the Tigers could not take advantage of the Tar Heels' 92nd ranked pass Defense that is allowing 247 yards per game through the air. However, the biggest key to the game could be how the Tar Heels Defense plays against the rushing attack of the Tigers.

Clemson are averaging just under 200 yards per game on the ground this season, but North Carolina are only allowing 108 yards per game at 3.1 yards per carry. Clemson will look to the Georgia Tech game, when North Carolina allowed 312 yards on the ground, as the basis of the fact that the team can be run upon.

On the other side of the ball, I think the North Carolina team, particularly Giovani Bernard, will look to pound the ball on the ground. Bernard has reached 100 yards or more on the ground in the last 5 games for the Tar Heels and they should have success against the Clemson Defense that has allowed an average of 179 yards per game rushing.

That should allow for Bryn Renner to be placed in short and manageable situations against a tough Defense to pass against and will also slow down any pass rush Clemson can generate. Clemson has recorded 13 sacks this season and 35 tackles for a loss and should be able to get past a North Carolina Offensive Line that has struggled.

This means the Tar Heels cannot afford to get too far behind early, as they did when losing to Miami last week, as that will allow the Clemson Defensive Ends to pin back their ears and get after the OL and Renner behind them.

North Carolina will not have Ebele Okakpu (LB) available as he has been dismissed for the year for violating team rules, while Jonathan Smith (SS) is listed as questionable- both players will be big misses in a Defense that is expected to be tested through the air.

The Offensive Line could also be missing Cam Holland (C) who is currently listed as questionable having missed 2 games in a row.

Head to Head

North Carolina beat Clemson by 5 points at home last season and also covered the spread in that game.

The Tigers have won their last 2 home games against North Carolina, although the last meeting here was back in 2006.

North Carolina are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games in the series.

The favourite is 8-3 against the spread in the last 11 games in the series.

Clemson are 6-1 against the spread this season, North Carolina are 3-4.

Other Interesting Trends

Clemson have won their last 6 games against the spread in Conference play.

They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home favourite.

North Carolina have won their last 4 games against the spread as the road underdog of 10.5 points or more.

They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record at home.

They are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games in Conference play.

Prediction

I like the Clemson Tigers to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, the Tigers have a quick-fire Offense that can put up a lot of points quickly and may force the Tar Heels to play catch up through the air, the strength of the Clemson Defense.

Second, Clemson have the far superior turnover ratio compared with North Carolina and that means the Offense is more likely to be given short fields to work with.

Third, Clemson have a very balanced Offense and that should keep North Carolina on their (Tar) heels and allow the Tigers to move the chains much more consistently.

This could be a lot closer if the Tar Heels can get off to a good start, but I really feel Clemson are too explosive for them and will be able to cover the spread offered.