NCAA Football
2011-10-21 - West Virginia at Syracuse Orange
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 8
Friday 21 October 2011 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is a Big East clash between the favourites to win the Conference, the West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1), and the Syracuse Orange (4-2). West Virginia are 1-0 in Big East play this season, Syracuse are 0-1.
West Virginia became the favourites to win the Conference right after South Florida were pulverised by the Pittsburgh Panthers two weeks ago, and the Mountaineers have not really disappointed those who believe they are the cream of this Conference. The only defeat they have suffered this season was against LSU, and that was a much closer game than the final score indicated.
Much of their success has been behind the play of Geno Smith who has thrown 16 TD passes and just 3 Interceptions this season. The team are averaging 380 yards through the air and they figure to get plenty of success against a Syracuse Defense that is ranked at 112th in the nation when it comes to pass Defense and is allowing just under 300 passing yards per game.
Smith will need to remove memories of his last meeting with Syracuse when he was sacked 5 times and threw 3 first half Interceptions in a surprise 19-14 home loss last season. The Syracuse Defense can still get pressure on the QB this season, although the Mountaineers Offensive Line has been playing well.
Another way to protect Smith in this game will be by using Dustin Garrison who had his biggest rushing game of his career recently against Bowling Green when he went off for over 200 yards on the ground. Garrison is averaging 72 yards per game this season, and will find it tough against an Orange Defense that allows just 3 yards per carry, but it will at least slow down the pass rush if they have to respect the rushing attack.
With the Mountaineers expected to have success Offensively, it will be up to Ryan Nassib to help the Syracuse Offense keep up. Nassib has 11 TD passes and 4 Interceptions this season, but is going to find it tough against West Virginia's Defense which is allowing just 181 yards per game through the air. While the Defense only has 8 sacks this season, they should also get some success against the Orange Offensive Line that has struggled to keep Nassib upright.
Antwon Bailey will get a lot of looks for Syracuse as the running back is averaging 92 yards per game on the ground and should be able to get the Orange into manageable situations even though West Virginia give up just 3.6 yards per carry. The problem for Syracuse will be if they have to move away from their rushing attack if they fall behind early against a powerful Offense.
West Virginia are likely to be missing Doug Ritt (LB) who injured his wrist against LSU and is listed as questionable this week.
Syracuse have better news for their own Defense as Olando Fisher (S) and Chandler Jones (DE) have both been upgraded to probable after missing the last 5 games they have played.
Head to Head
Syracuse's surprise win over West Virginia last season was their first since 2001, a run which had seen them lost 8 games in a row between wins.
West Virginia have actually won their last 4 games in Syracuse, both straight up and against the spread.
The road team is 6-0 against the spread in the last 6 games in the series.
Syracuse are 2-4 against the spread this season, West Virginia are 3-3.
Other Interesting Trends
Syracuse have won their last 5 games against the spread after a bye week.
They are 2-7-1 against the spread in their last 10 games as the home underdog of 10.5 points or more.
They are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record.
West Virginia are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road favourite of 10.5 points or more.
They are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record at home.
They are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last 5 games in Conference play.
Prediction
I like West Virginia in this spot for the following reasons:
First, there is a huge revenge angle from last season as they were upset at home and you know Geno Smith will want to set the record straight.
Second, I find it hard to see how Syracuse can stop West Virginia consistently when their Defensive weakness matches so well with the Mountaineers Offensive strengths.
Third, Syracuse may struggle if they fall behind early and have to rely on Ryan Nassib to make a lot of plays with his arm.
Fourth, West Virginia have had a lot of success here in Syracuse in recent seasons, winning the last 2 games by a combined 62 points total.
I like West Virginia and I would recommend taking them at SportingBet or William Hill as both those companies still have the Mountaineers as 13.5 point favourites rather than the 14 points in most other places, and that 0.5 points could be the key in this game.
That half point can be the difference between a winning bet and a push so I would take the 13.5 point spread at the same prices.
The Pick :
Syracuse Orange 13-31 West Virginia
