Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens Betting pick | 2011-10-16

NFL Football

2011-10-16 - Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
United States: NFL Football Week 6
Sunday 16 October 2011 - Kick Off 4:05pm ET
9:05pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

The AFC South is wide open this year as the Indianapolis Colts have fallen away, so the Houston Texans (3-2) were the favourites to win the Division although injuries are hurting this team right now. They now face a Baltimore Ravens (3-1) team that know there is lots of work to do to maintain their lead in the AFC North.

Houston are in a really tough spot here as they have to make do without their 2 biggest playmakers on both sides of the ball. Andre Johnson (WR) missed the loss against Oakland last week and has been ruled out this week, although he could be back in Week 7 and that takes out a huge element of the Offense.

The Defense will also be missing Mario Williams (MLB), their sack and inspirational leader and he is likely out for the rest of the season. How the Texans cope with these injuries will determine whether they can make it to their first Play Off game in franchise history.

The Offense is going to have a tough time this week against a rested Ravens team as Matt Schaub (QB) is also hurting with a shoulder complaint. Without Johnson, he does not have the big playmaker in the receiving corps who is considered in the top 2 receivers in the NFL. Owen Daniels will be the main target, while Kevin Walter and Derrick Mason will be the starting receivers.

It figures to be a tough passing day for the Texans against a vaunted Ravens Defense that gets plenty of pressure on the QB. Arian Foster is unlikely to release the pressure on the ground as the Ravens just don't give up big plays there and all in all, the Offense could find it hard to consistently move the chains.

Baltimore should put a lot of faith in Ray Rice to help their own Offense out against the Texans Defense that has allowed over 100 yards per game this season, although fresh off holding Darren McFadden to 51 yards last week. Wade Phillips has really improved the Defensive unit, but the loss of Williams is going to be huge this week.

Without Williams, you have to think the Baltimore Offensive Line will be able to deal with the Houston pass rush that had provided an average of 3 sacks a game this season. Joe Flacco has not really performed to a high level as he did against Pittsburgh, but he should get time to dissect a Houston Defense that could be a little down on themselves after losing their leader.

Head to Head

This will be the 5th regular season meeting between the teams, with Baltimore winning the previous 4 including a 6 point win on the road last season.

Baltimore are 3-1 against the spread in those games, although the only Houston cover came in the 1 game they have played in Baltimore.

Baltimore are 3-1 against the spread this season, Houston are 3-2.

Other Interesting Trends

Baltimore are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games off a bye week. They are 29-14 against the spread in their last 43 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.

Houston are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road underdog. They are 6-3 against the spread as underdogs of 6 or more points since 2008.

Prediction

I have been waiting patiently for this line to come down to the key number of 7, and now William Hill have taken the plunge, I am going to back the Baltimore Ravens to cover for the following reasons:

First, Baltimore have regularly covered the spread off a bye as the Defense is rested and they are really focused on making their run to the Play Offs.

Second, Houston are missing two major playmakers this week and Matt Schaub is injured. They could be feeling a little sorry for themselves as they travel on the road.

Third, Houston may also be looking ahead to the clash with the Tennessee Titans next week, a Divisional contest for the AFC South lead, and they may not be 100% focused on the Ravens.

The Statistics :

BALTIMORE RAVENS LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-10-02	W	34-17	H v New York Jets
	2011-09-11	W	35-7	H v Pittsburgh Steelers
	2011-01-02	W	13-7	H v Cincinnati Bengals
	2010-12-19	W	30-24	H v New Orleans Saints
	2010-12-05	L	10-13	H v Pittsburgh Steelers
	2010-11-28	W	17-10	H v Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HOUSTON TEXANS LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-09-25	L	40-33	A v New Orleans Saints
	2011-09-18	W	13-23	A v Miami Dolphins
	2010-12-26	L	24-23	A v Denver Broncos
	2010-12-19	L	31-17	A v Tennessee Titans
	2010-12-02	L	34-24	A v Philadelphia Eagles
	2010-11-21	L	30-27	A v New York Jets