NFL Football
2011-10-16 - St Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 6
Sunday 16 October 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This looks like a complete mismatch on paper, but there are a couple of trends that lessens my confidence in the final pick. However the line has come down to a key number as the Green Bay Packers (5-0) entertain the winless St Louis Rams (0-4).
I am not going to make this an extended preview on Green Bay as I am assuming anyone reading this preview will have seen this Offense in action at least once or twice in recent weeks. Aaron Rodgers should have his way with the Defense as we saw he has far too many options and I just don't see teams out there that will be able to stop the Packers doing what they want.
Last week, Atlanta held a 14-0 lead and still were blown out easily, while Rodgers found TWELVE different receivers. He doesn't mind who he throws to- if you are open, expect to get the ball.
St Louis are fairly decent playing the pass as they can get pressure on the QB, but they have given up 180 yards per game on the ground so I expect the Packers to begin by picking up chunks of yardage through Ryan Grant and James Starks.
The Packers Offensive Line is a little beat up, but we saw how well they played in the 2nd half last week and with a week of practice, I think they provide enough time for Rodgers to make throws.
I expect the Packers to score at least 4 TDs in this game so the question becomes whether the St Louis Rams can keep up? That will all depend if the receivers have actually learnt how to catch the ball and whether the Offensive Line has found a way to protect their franchise QB, Sam Bradford.
Green Bay play the run effectively so the pressure will be on Bradford to make the plays. So far he has made plenty of good throws, but the receivers are killing drives with silly drops and that is making life very difficult for the Rams to sustain drives and score points. After watching tapes of their games, it is unsurprising to see they average just 11.5 points per game.
Protection has been a big problem for the Rams and they allow 4.8 sacks per game and it just looks like being a tough day all round for the Offense.
Head to Head
Green Bay beat St Louis by 19 points on the road when they last met in 2009. The Packers have won 3 of the last 4 games both straight up and against the spread.
The road team has won the last 3 games against the spread in the series. The favourite has won the last 6 games against the spread in the series.
Green Bay are 4-1 against the spread this season, St Louis are 0-4.
Other Interesting Trends
Green Bay are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games as the home favourite. However, the Packers are 5-12-2 against the spread in their last 19 games as the home favourite of 10.5 points or more.
They are 10-3-1 against the spread in their last 14 games against a team with a losing record.
St Louis are 3-11 against the spread in their last 14 games as the road underdog of 10.5 points or more. They have lost their last 4 games against the spread against a team with a winning record.
Winless teams coming off a bye week are 22-3 against the spread.
Prediction
I do like the Green Bay Packers now the line has dropped from 16 points to 14 points, and I like them for the following reasons:
First, I can't see how the Rams Defense is going to stop the Packers piling up the points in this game.
Second, St Louis have struggled Offensively as mistakes are killing them, while the Offensive Line is not giving Sam Bradford time to make plays.
Third, the spread looks a little low to me as the Rams are considered only 2 points worse than Atlanta.
This will be one of my lower unit picks of the week as there are a couple of things I am concerned about.
First, Green Bay are in a breather spot as they played in Atlanta last week and they go to the Vikings next week so they may not be 100% focused on this game.
The trend about winless teams coming off a bye is also a concern as is the fact that double-digit underdogs generally perform well against the spread.
However, the line has come down enough for me to be interested and the Packers are playing on a whole different level to most teams right now.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Green Bay Packers 34-13 St Louis Rams
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Green Bay Packers -14 Points @ 1.95
