East Carolina at Memphis Tigers Betting pick | 2011-10-15

NCAA Football

2011-10-15 - East Carolina at Memphis Tigers

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

East Carolina Pirates @ Memphis Tigers
United States: NCAA Football Week 7
Saturday 15 October 2011 - Kick Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)

Preview

This is a Conference-USA match up between two struggling teams as the East Carolina Pirates (1-4) visit the Memphis Tigers (1-5). The Pirates are at least 1-1 in Conference play this season, where as the Tigers come in with a 0-2 record.

The Pirates will be looking to their Offense to provide the spark that will send them to victory in this game as they have put up at least 35 points in 7 of their last 11 games. Dominique Davis figures to get success through the air as he leads a team that is ranked at number 36 in the nation when it comes to total Offense.

Davis has tossed 9 TDs and 10 Interceptions this season, but is completing 67% of his passes and he should get success against a weak Memphis Secondary. The Pirates Offensive Line has failed to protect Davis, but I am not sure if Memphis have the capability of taking advantage of that.

The Tigers have allowed just under 300 passing yards per contest, and have also given up 200 yards on the ground, although this is where the Pirates have struggled, gaining just 69 yards per game on the ground this season.

With East Carolina expected to be able to put up points, it is going to be up to the Memphis Tigers to keep up with them, but the Offense has really struggled so far this season. They are only scoring 13.5 points per game and are ranked in the lower regions of total Offense.

The Offensive Line has stunk for the Tigers so far, allowing 16 sacks this season, while the rushing game is gaining only 2.7 yards per carry, meaning their QB Taylor Reed is left in 3rd and long situations.

Reggie Bullock is the leading rusher for East Carolina this season, but he is considered questionable for this game. Adhem Elsawi (OG) is out this week, and will be a big miss for a unit that has been struggling.

Head to Head

East Carolina have won 5 games in a row against Memphis, including a 49-27 home win last season. The Pirates have also won their last 2 trips to Memphis straight up.

East Carolina are 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 visits to Memphis. In fact, East Carolina are 12-1 against the spread in the last 13 games in the series between these two schools.

Memphis are 2-4 against the spread this season, East Carolina are 2-3.

Other Interesting Trends

Memphis are 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 home games as the underdog of 10.5 points or greater. They are 4-10-1 against the spread in their last 15 games in Conference play.

East Carolina are 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 games as the road favourite. They have lost their last 4 games against the spread in Conference play.

They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the favourite of 10.5 points or more.

Prediction

I hate betting on crappy teams, but I do like the East Carolina Pirates to win and cover in this game for the following reasons:

First, East Carolina can score points and Memphis are going to struggle to try and keep up with them.

Second, I am finding it hard to see how Memphis can consistently move the chains with a struggling Offense.

Third, East Carolina have an exceptionally good record against the Tigers in recent seasons.

As I said, I hate betting on crappy teams full stop, I just feel the Pirates are going to be too strong here and the line has moved down significantly for me to get interested.