NFL Football
2011-10-16 - Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 6
Sunday 16 October 2011 - Kick Off 7:20pm ET
1:20am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The reigning NFC North Champions, the Chicago Bears (2-3), are under a bit of pressure in their Division where the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions are both unbeaten and now they face an old rival in the form of the Minnesota Vikings (1-4), a team better than the record suggests.
The Vikings are unlikely to trouble the top of the NFC North standings this season, but the Bears cannot afford to lose another game with the way the Lions and Packers are playing.
Jay Cutler had a really good game on Monday Night Football even though the Bears lost 24-13, and it would have been a lot worse if Cutler had not managed to scramble away from the rush and make some exceptional throws with his arm to keep the chains moving. It is likely that he will have to play that well again to keep Minnesota at bay this week.
The Bears Offensive Line had a torrid time last week and have been struggling for most of the season, giving up 3.6 sacks per game, and they now face a Minnesota team that has found plenty of pressure on the opposition QB this season. The Vikings have 16 sacks on the season and Jared Allen is back to his best while leading the NFL with 8.5 sacks himself.
The Secondary can be exposed, but if Cutler does not have time, he is going to find it hard to play to the same level as Monday night.
The Vikings are strong protecting against the run, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry, so you have to figure Mike Martz will return to the heavy passing game he prefers, while Matt Forte will be used primarily as someone catching out of the backfield as screens are set up for him.
While Chicago figure to struggle, Minnesota are not in a much better position Offensively as they continue to start Donovon McNabb, a player I have admired in the past but one that looks just about done as a starter in this League. Lesley Frazier, the Minnesota Head Coach, has been questioning McNabb's throwing mechanics and that is normally the prelude to a benching.
McNabb has really struggled this season, completing just 56% of his passes, while he no longer has the same scrambling ability to avoid the pass rush. The Vikings have allowed 2.2 sacks per game this season, and I can see the Bears having success getting to McNabb in this game.
The biggest weapon the Vikings have is Adrian Peterson who should have a big game against the Bears Defense that has allowed 5.7 yards per carry from the opposition this season. They were cut apart for two big runs from Jahvid Best on Monday night and have allowed 135 yards per game on the ground this season.
Chicago will look to employ the same schemes that have seen them limit Peterson to under 100 yards in the last 2 games played at Soldier Field, and last season they held him to 51 yards from 17 carries. I expect the Bears to try and load the box and force McNabb to make the throws to beat them and that could lead to good things for Chicago.
Head to Head
Chicago have won 3 games in a row in the series, both straight up and against the spread, and beat the Vikings by a combined 67-27 last season in their 2 meetings.
Chicago are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 home games against the Vikings, both straight up and against the spread.
In fact, Minnesota are 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 visits to Soldier Field.
The favourite is 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 games in the series.
Chicago are 1-4 against the spread this season, Minnesota are 2-2-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Teams who have lost by double-digits on the road on Monday Night Football are 11-25 against the spread at home in their next game since 2002.
Jay Cutler is 11-23 against the spread in his 34 games as the favourite.
Minnesota are 4-15-2 against the spread in their last 21 games as the road underdog of between 0.5 and 3 points.
The Vikings are 0-5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against teams from the NFC North and Minnesota are 3-8-1 against the spread in their last 12 games against teams from the NFC.
Prediction
I didn't like what I saw from the Offensive Line of Chicago on Monday Night, but I do like the Bears to cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, I don't trust Donovon McNabb to make enough plays to keep the chains moving if the Bears devise the same schemes to slow down Adrian Peterson as they have in the past.
Second, Chicago should be fully focused against a Divisional rival at home and have enjoyed plenty of success against Minnesota here recently.
Third, Minnesota have struggled as the road underdog when they are considered to have a chance of causing an upset outright.
This is a close game, but I think Jay Cutler's athletic ability to move away from the rush could be the difference between Chicago and Donovon McNabb and the Vikings Offense.
The spread is surprisingly lower than I thought it might be, and while there is a chance it will move down to 2.5 points, I am taking the 3 points now and locking it in.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Chicago Bears 24-17 Minnesota Vikings
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Chicago Bears -3 Points @ 2.10
