NFL Football
2011-10-16 - New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 6
Sunday 16 October 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The battle for the top of the NFC South moves to Florida this week as the New Orleans Saints (4-1) visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) with the latter coming off the most embarrassing of losses last week at San Francisco. The Saints will be hoping to maintain their lead in the Division as well as their 4 game winning run since losing to the Green Bay Packers.
Tampa Bay travelled West to play the 49ers last week and there was no way they could have foreseen a 48-3 shelling as they could get nothing moving on Offense while the Defense could not do anything against the ground game led by Frank Gore.
The Defense is allowing far too many yards on the ground which is making it hard for them to stop teams moving the chains, and this problem may be made worse this week as they are likely missing Gerald McCoy. This will make it hard for them to stop the running game and will also make it more difficult for the Buccaneers to rush the passer, not something you want to be thinking before facing the Saints.
Drew Brees is definitely in the upper elite level when it comes to QBs in the NFL and it is not going to be too much of a problem for him to slice through this Defense if he is allowed time in the pocket. The Saints have far too many Offensive weapons to cover, while Marques Colston is a week healthier, and Brees is completing almost 70% of his passes.
Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles and Mark Ingram should all get their yardage on the ground too so the Saints will look balanced and should be able to put up a bunch of points.
That can only mean problems for Tampa Bay who will find it hard to keep up. The Buccaneers will look to their ground attack to keep the New Orleans pass rush off of Josh Freeman, a QB who has really been struggling after a very good season last year.
However, they could be missing LeGarrette Blount, another player who was injured last week, and without the teams leading rusher, they will use Ernest Graham and Kregg Lumpkin. The Saints have struggled against rushing attacks, giving up 5.2 yards per carry, so you have to think the Buccaneers will look to utilise this and keep the New Orleans Offense off the field as much as possible.
Tampa Bay do not want to fall to far behind though, as the Saints pass rush has been very effective, particularly since Will Smith returned from an early suspension. Freeman has also struggled to be as efficient as last season, throwing his 6th Interception of the season against San Francisco, the same amount he had all of last year.
Head to Head
The last 4 games between these Divisional rivals have been split 2-2, although the road team has won every contest.
New Orleans have won their last 2 visits to Tampa Bay, both straight up and against the spread, while outscoring the Buccaneers 69-13.
The Saints are 4-2 against the spread in the last 6 games in the series and New Orleans are also 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games played in Tampa Bay.
The road team is 13-3 against the spread in the last 16 games in the series.
Tampa Bay are 2-3 against the spread this season, New Orleans are 3-2.
Other Interesting Trends
Tampa Bay are 3-13 against the spread in their last 16 games as the home underdog.
The Bucs are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points. They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games against teams from within their Division.
New Orleans are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points. They are 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games against teams from within their Division.
The Saints are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games against teams with winning records.
Road favourites who are playing their 3rd consecutive road game are 6-0 against the spread since 2002.
Prediction
I was hoping the New Orleans Saints spread had come just a little bit more, but I really like them in this spot to gain another big Division win at Tampa Bay for the following reasons:
First, the injury to Gerald McCoy is a huge loss for the Buccaneers and I am struggling to see how they will stop this powerful Saints Offense without their best player.
Second, the Saints have been very good in their last 2 visits to Tampa Bay, beating the Buccaneers in all facets of the game.
Third, Josh Freeman is not playing with the same efficiency as last season and could be forced to make more plays with his arm now LeGarratte Blount looks likely to miss out.
I just feel the Saints will be able to score points and will then force mistakes from the Buccaneers who try and play catch up and that could lead to an easier win for the Saints than expected.
The spread is perhaps going to move down to 4 points by Sunday, but I am locking in the 4.5 spread at Pinnacle.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-34 New Orleans Saints
