NFL Football
2011-10-16 - Buffalo Bills at New York Giants
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 6
Sunday 16 October 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
Right, I will admit it, I did not see that New York Giants (3-2) performance coming when they laid an egg in getting beat at home by the Seattle Seahawks. They look to get back on the horse against one of the most surprising teams of the season so far, the Buffalo Bills (4-1).
The Giants made numerous mistakes last week and could not stop Tavaris Jackson moving the ball up and down the field, while Eli Manning had his worst performance of the season. The running game could not get anything going, and that left Manning in tough situations, although some of his decisions were questionable to say the least.
New York have struggled on the ground this season as a whole, averaging just 83 yards per game, but you do figure they will have some joy on that front against a Bills Defense that are allowing 5.5 yards per carry while giving up 123 yards per game on the ground. If the Giants can get the rock moving, that should give Manning enough short and manageable situations to keep the chains moving.
Manning should be able to make his throws against a Bills Defense that hasn't had much joy through the air, although he will have to take note of their 4 Interceptions last week. The Giants Offensive Line should be able to cope better against the pass rush if the rushing attack is working as the shorter yards to pick up means Manning will not need too much time in the pocket to pick out either Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham or Victor Cruz.
The Bills figure to have plenty of their own success as they put their 4th ranked rushing Offense up against a Giants team that has allowed 159 yards on the ground on average over their last 3 games. However, one element where the Giants could have the edge is through their Defensive Co-Ordinator Perry Fewell, who spent 4 years in Buffalo until 2009.
Fred Jackson should leave the Bills in a position to continuously move the chains on the ground while also slowing down a pass rush of the Giants that has provided 18 sacks this season. Buffalo have only allowed 4 sacks this season, but they will not want Ryan Fitzpatrick in 3rd and long situations so I expect them to run the ball a lot.
Head to Head
These two teams last met in 2007 with the Giants coming out with a big win from Buffalo.
The Bills have actually won their last 2 visits to the Giants, although those games were split 1-1 against the spread.
The Giants are 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 games in the series.
Both teams are 3-2 against the spread this season.
Other Interesting Trends
New York are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home. However, they have lost their last 6 games against the spread as the home favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.
Tom Coughlin is 7-3 against the spread in his last 10 games as the favourite when he comes in off a loss as the favourite.
Buffalo are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games as the road underdog. However, the Bills have lost their last 4 games against the spread as the road underdog of between 0.5 and 3 points.
They are 5-11 against the spread in their last 16 games following a win.
Prediction
After that horrible performance against Seattle, I am going back to the well and backing the New York Giants to win and cover this week for the following reasons:
First, Tom Coughlin clearly can get his team playing better the week after losing as the favourite, even where his team is favoured again.
Second, Perry Fewell will have the inside knowledge on many of these Buffalo players and should find a way to stop the Bills enough of the time even though his Defense has been struggling recently.
Third, New York are far better than they showed last week and have enough Offensive weapons to score lots of points against this Bills Defense.
I was hoping the public would have bet the Giants down to under a field goal, but it is clear the layers are not so keen to do that so I will lock in this pick now at Ladbrokes' stand out price.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
New York Giants 28-24 Buffalo Bills
