NFL Football
2011-10-16 - Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 6
Sunday 16 October 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
I will be very surprised if we don't see a high scoring game on Sunday when the New England Patriots (4-1) host the Dallas Cowboys (2-2) in Foxboro. The Patriots continue to play like one of the elite teams in the NFL, while the Cowboys come off a bye hoping some of their Offensive weapons can help out Tony Romo.
There isn't a lot I can say that you won't already know about the New England Patriots Offense which is led by Tom Brady and putting up some giddy numbers. The Patriots are putting up 366 yards through the air per game, but they found some very good balance last week against the New York Jets when BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran for 136 yards on the ground.
The one issue the Patriots did have last week was with the Offensive Line and trying to keep the Jets pass rush off of Brady. Things will not be easier this week against DeMarcus Ware, who has been given a free reign by Rob Ryan in his new look Defense and has responded by recording 5 of the 13 sacks the Cowboys have recorded.
Dallas have also been very effective defending the rush and have only allowed 61 yards per game on the ground this season, but this Defense is comfortably facing the toughest Offense they have seen this year.
In what looks like developing into a shootout, the question will be whether Dallas and Tony Romo can keep up with the Patriots. In Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, the team has some very good Offensive weapons, although Austin and Bryant are coming off injuries and whether they are at 100% is open to debate.
You have to think the Cowboys will find success against a Defense that has been torched on more than one occasion this season, although they have found ways to become stout at just the right times. New England have given up over 325 yards per game through the air alone, while also struggling to keep teams from running on them.
Felix Jones should be able to keep the team in short yard situations against a Patriots Defense that has allowed 4.4 yards per carry, but Dallas could be forced away from this if they fall behind.
The Offensive Line has also been playing well enough to give Romo some time, only allowing 3 sacks in the last 3 games they have played, and you would expect Bryant and Austin to get enough separation from the Secondary to help Dallas put up points on the board.
Head to Head
Dallas and New England last met in Texas in 2007, with the Patriots winning a shoot-out by pulling away in what had been a close contest.
New England are 3-0 against the spread in the last 3 games in the series between the teams.
The favourite is 4-0 against the spread in the last 4 games in the series.
New England are 4-1 against the spread this season, Dallas are 1-2-1.
Other Interesting Trends
New England are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
New England are 26-14 against the spread in their last 38 games against opponents from the NFC.
Home favourites of 6.5 points or more prior to their bye week are 28-8 against the spread since 2002 (New England are 3-0 under Bill Belichick in this spot).
Dallas have won their last 4 games against the spread as the road underdog.
Prediction
I do like Dallas a lot as a team, but they are not in the elite of the NFL and I have to take the New England Patriots for the following reasons:
First, New England are a very tough team to stop and they have too many Offensive weapons for this Dallas Defense, regardless of their solid stats so far this season. This is easily the best Offense Dallas have faced so far.
Second, I love the trend about big home favourites a week before the bye- these teams are usually big favourites because they are good teams and they clearly become very focused ahead of their break.
Third, the pressure of being in a possible shoot out could lead to Tony Romo making errors that have already hurt the Cowboys this season.
This clearly has the potential to be high scoring with both Offenses capable of putting up lots of points, I just feel the Patriots will end up being too strong for the Cowboys and take advantage of a couple of mistakes and turn them into points to pull away.
I'm putting my wager down now before the line moves back up to 7 points as we close in on Sunday.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
New England Patriots 34-27 Dallas Cowboys
