NFL Football
2011-10-16 - Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 6
Sunday 16 October 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
It was an emotional weekend last week for Hue Jackson and the Oakland Raiders (3-2) who were playing just 24 hours after the death of their inspirational owner Al Davis. This game should prove to be no different as it's the first game the Raider Nation will be playing at home without Davis as they welcome the Cleveland Browns (2-2).
Oakland did not play outstanding football last week, but they fought and scratched and made sure they would do everything in their power to come away from Houston with the win. That moved them above 0.500 on the season and proved the Raiders are a real threat in the NFL West this season and made sure 'Just Win Baby' was alive and well.
The Offense had a bad week in Houston, as they struggled to move the chains consistently. The Raiders rely on the running game to keep Jason Campbell in short and manageable situations, but they only gained 94 yards on the ground last week, a lot lower than the 161 yards they averaged this season.
Darren McFadden struggled to 51 yards from 16 carries, although he did have a 41 yarder negated for holding by the Offensive Line, although he should be able to get back on track against the Cleveland Browns who are ranked 25th in the NFL against the run and allow an average of 124 yards per game on the ground.
This will be very important for the Raiders to keep Campbell in short yardage situation as the Browns have been pretty stout against the pass so far, although they have not played too many elite QBs. Short yard situations should also be able to slow down the pass rush of the Browns which has produced 11 sacks this season, albeit 9 of those coming against Cincinnati and Miami.
A problem for the Defense could be the fact that Joe Haden (CB) has only just returned to practice so his status is unclear for this game, while Marcus Benard (DE) is out for the season after breaking his hand in a motorcycle accident.
While the Raiders were struggling running the ball last week, the Browns have struggled for most of the season and average just 85 yards per game at 3.4 yards a carry so far. Peyton Hillis has been causing a stir off the field rather than on it as he admitted he didn't play against Miami because his agent told him not to, and I do wonder how that has worked for the team morale.
Hillis, if he plays which I think he will, should be able to get things going a little more against the Raiders who are allowing 5.2 yards per carry on the ground. The Defense is ranked 31st in the NFL in total Defense, allowing 422 yards per game.
Colt McCoy has struggled to move the chains through the air and he has completed less than 60% of his passing attempts. McCoy has 6 TDs and 3 Interceptions this season but he could find himself under intense pressure if the running game is not working. Oakland have already managed 14 sacks this season and Cleveland are finding it hard to protect their QB.
Cleveland will want to keep this game close else things could quickly get out of hand as it did in their last game with Tennessee when McCoy was sacked 4 times as they tried to come back from a large deficit.
Head to Head
Cleveland have actually won 4 of their last 5 games between the two teams since 2003.
The Browns have won 5 of those games against the spread.
Oakland are 4-1 against the spread this season, Cleveland are 1-2-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Oakland are just 2-12 against the spread in their last 14 games as the home favourite. However, they are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
The Raiders are are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against AFC teams.
Cleveland are 14-6-1 against the spread in their last 21 games as the underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points. They have won their last 7 games against the spread as the home underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
The Browns are 1-6-1 against the spread in their last 8 games against teams from the AFC.
Prediction
This should be another emotional game for the Raiders and I am going to back them to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I expect the rushing game to get back on track for the Raiders and that should open things up for Jason Campbell to hurt a Secondary that will likely be missing their best Corner in Joe Haden.
Second, if the Raiders can get the lead, they will eventually force Colt McCoy to beat them through the air and that will lead to the pass rush being able to take advantage of the Browns' Defensive Line.
Third, there should be plenty of emotion in the air that should inspire the Raiders to perform as they did against Houston last week.
I am a little concerned with the fact the Raiders play Kansas City here next week so they may be focused on their Divisional game rather than this one, but Cleveland have to travel across the country to play the game so I think that balances out.
The line is down at 6.5 points at the moment, but it looks like it is moving back up to 7 as a few layers have already gone that way, so I will lock this in now.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Oakland Raiders 31-21 Cleveland Browns
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Oakland Raiders -6.5 Points @ 1.92
