NCAA Football
2011-10-15 - Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 7
Saturday 15 October 2011 - Kick Off 12pm ET
5pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is not just a big traditional rivalry, but it is a game between two teams that are very much in the mix when it comes to the Big Ten Legends Division. The #11 Michigan Wolverines (6-0) come in looking to extend their unbeaten run, while the #23 ranked Michigan State Spartans (4-1) will want to hang on to their coattails.
The Wolverines are perhaps one of the surprising unbeaten teams at this stage of the season, but have taken advantage of their schedule that has given them 5 home games in that time, although they showed the character in the team when coming back from a 10 point half time deficit to blow out Northwestern on the road last week.
The Offense is all about Denard Robinson, one of the leading contenders to win the Heisman. The QB does provide a dual threat from the backfield for Michigan, although he has been Intercepted 9 times this season while throwing 10 TD passes. Robinson has also rushed for 8 further scores and he will be the one person the Spartans will look to slow down.
Michigan are putting up plenty of yards in total Offense, but face an altogether different test against one of the most solid Defenses in the country. They are ranked at number 1 when it comes to total Defense, allowing just 173 total yards per game and they have allowed just 64 yards rushing per contest at 2.2 yards per carry.
With an additional week to prepare for this game, you have to think the Spartans already have a plan for dealing with Robinson. The Defense gets plenty of penetration into the backfield, but they will have to be careful that Robinson does not get away from the pass rush with his athletic ability.
While the Spartans Defense has been strong, the Offense continues to splutter. The team failed to score more than 13 points in contests against Notre Dame and Ohio State earlier this season, but the raw statistics show they are putting up decent numbers. Kirk Cousins has 6 TD passes and 4 Interceptions in the season and he will have a tough time against this Wolverines Defense.
Michigan can be run against, but I am not sure if the Spartans get enough from their own rushing Offense for that to be the key decider in this game. The Wolverines should gain some success with their pass rush that is providing 1.8 sacks per game and they have very much been of the philosophy of 'bend, but don't break'.
Sacks and penetration into the backfield could be a big problem for the Spartans this week as they are struggling for depth on the Offensive Line which has a number of injuries.
The Wolverines still have Cam Gordon (LB) listed as questionable this week as he has missed 3 weeks in a row. Gordon is back in practice but there are still doubts he will be called upon. Ricky Barnum is a concern for Michigan on the Offensive Line and is also listed as questionable.
Head to Head
Michigan were beaten by 17 points at home last season against Michigan State as Denard Robinson struggled and threw 3 Interceptions.
The Spartans also won their last home game against Michigan at home by 6 points in OT, but the Wolverines had won on their previous 3 visits to this stadium.
Michigan State have won the last 3 games against the spread in the series.
The road team is 6-2 against the spread in the last 8 games in the series.
Michigan State are 3-2 against the spread this season, Michigan are 5-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Michigan State have lost their last 5 games against the spread when they are set as the home favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.
They are 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games against a team with a winning record on the road.
Michigan are just 5-23 against the spread in their last 28 games in Conference play.
They are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog of between 0.5 and 3 points.
They are 7-20 against the spread in their last 27 games against a team with a winning record.
Prediction
This has all the markings of a close game that could be decided by Denard Robinson one way or the other. I have to say I like the underdog to win this one straight up for the following reasons:
First, Michigan have really built up ahead of steam this season and showed the confidence and character of the team last time out by bouncing back from a 10 point deficit to blow-out Northwestern.
Second, the Wolverines have enjoyed success on the road against the Spartans in recent games, and I feel they enjoy the atmosphere coming in to this game.
Third, Michigan State's Offense has really struggled to keep drives alive and actually finish them off with scores. If they get behind, they will have to beat the Wolverines strength which is their pass Defense.
Fourth, Notre Dame managed to get enough going on the ground against the Spartans to make me think the Wolverines will have enough success to keep the chains moving consistently.
This is surely going to be a close game, but I will like the undefeated Michigan Wolverines to win it straight up. I have a concern that Michigan State have had 2 weeks to prepare for the game so they may have some solid plans in place for dealing with Robinson, but their own Offense has struggled enough to make me think the Wolverines can get over the hill with their 4th win in 5 seasons at the Spartans.
The Pick :
Michigan State 27-30 Michigan Wolverines
