NCAA Football
2011-10-15 - Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 7
Saturday 15 October 2011 - Kick Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)
Preview
The #24 ranked Auburn Tigers (4-2) might be the National Champions, but they have little to no chance of making it back to the big game and even reaching a Bowl game could be too much with LSU and Alabama to play later this season.
On the other hand, the Florida Gators (4-2) might have the same record, but will feel they can still win the SEC East as they are just 1 game behind South Carolina and have already faced 2 of the best 3 teams in the nation.
Auburn have really struggled without the impact of last years QB Cam Newton, who is making waves in the NFL, and the Offense has had a significant drop off in performance. A QB controversy is brewing as Barrett Trotter has struggled so far this season, hitting 9 TD passes along with 6 Interceptions, and the fans have been demanding Kyle Frazier is given the start.
So far, head coach Gene Chizik has resisted these calls and maintains that Trotter will be the starter and he expects more from the Offense as a whole. Things will not be easier for them this week as the Tigers face a Florida Defense that defends the pass effectively.
Auburn will need the running game to be working as well as it has for most of the season as they average over 200 yards per game on the ground, but the Florida Defense has been stout in this area, allowing just 3.4 yards a carry.
The Auburn offensive Line played really badly at Arkansas last week, and that could lead to problems for Auburn as they face a Florida team that has recorded 10 sacks this season.
While this all looks bleak for the Tigers, they will be facing a hobbled Florida team that has taken back to back hidings at the hands of Alabama and LSU and Florida has traditionally struggled when coming to play in Auburn.
John Brantley, the starting QB, is out again, so Jacoby Brisset will get the start the week after throwing 2 Interceptions against LSU. Jeff Demps (RB) has an ankle injury but should still suit up as Florida have a bye after this week.
The Tigers Defense has been truly horrific this season and cannot seem to stop teams on the ground or through the air. Chris Rainey should have a big game rushing the ball for Florida, even without Jeff Demps, against an Auburn Defense that allows over 200 yards per game on the ground at 4.7 yards per carry.
With the poor Defense, Auburn are unsurprisingly giving up 29 points per game but the question becomes whether Florida are too beat up to take advantage of it.
Auburn could be missing a huge piece of their Offense again this week as Emory Blake (WR) remains questionable after missing the loss at Arkansas last week. Blake has 333 yards receiving this season and 4 TDs, but Auburn may also be missing Trovon Reed (WR) who is listed as doubtful after missing games 2 weeks in a row.
Head to Head
Auburn are 3-1 against Florida in the last 4 games of the series and they have won 2 in a row including a 20-17 win on the road when they last met in 2007.
Florida have lost the last 4 games against the spread in the series.
The underdog has won the last 4 games against the spread in the series.
Auburn are 2-4 against the spread this season, Florida are 3-2-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Auburn are 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 Conference games. They have won their last 5 games against the spread as the home underdog.
Auburn are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games against a team with a winning record.
Florida are 14-3 against the spread in their last 17 games as the road favourite. However, they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.
The Gators are 14-5 against the spread in their last 19 games against a team with a winning record at home. They are just 2-7-1 against the spread in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.
Prediction
If Florida had all their players up to fitness, I would really like them in this spot. However, I still believe they can grab a big win on the road for the following reasons:
First, Auburn's Defense has just plain sucked for the most part this season and have really struggled to stop the run while facing Chris Rainey this week.
Second, Florida have got through the hardest part of their schedule and are still firmly in the mix when it comes to the SEC East. That should give them the confidence to think they can still have a big season after a promising start.
Third, the Gators run Defense is very good and they could make Auburn one-dimensional in being forced to thrown the ball to move the chains. Barrett Trotter could quickly find the crowd on his back if he does not improve on this front, leading to mistakes.
I do wish John Brantley was at QB for Florida as he has not been making the mistakes that makes this Offense dangerous, whereas Jacoby Brisset is young and trying to get used to playing at this level. He should be feeling a lot better now he has seen Alabama and LSU up close and knowing the Auburn Defense is not half as scary.
I'll take Florida to cover the small spread behind their running game and forcing key turnovers.
The Pick :
Auburn Tigers 27-31 Florida Gators
