NCAA Football
2011-10-15 - Louisiana State at Tennessee Volunteers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 7
Saturday 15 October 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
It is quite clear to me why the winner of the SEC is almost a shoo-in to play in the National Championship game as they don't seem to get any weeks where they play weak opposition. The Louisiana State Tigers (6-0) will look to keep their own prospects of playing in the big game alive when they visit the Tennessee Volunteers (3-2).
Tennessee will look to do what no other team has been able to this season and try and keep the game close. Louisiana State have won every game by double digits behind a very strong Defense that ranks number 8 in points allowed (12.5 per game) and 5th in total Defense (254 yards allowed per game).
This Defense will not have an easy day in the office against the Volunteers who have racked up over 400 yards of total Offense a game. The biggest problem Tennessee have had so far is finding a balance in their Offense and that will not come any easier against the Tigers. Tennessee average just 84 yards on the ground per game, and come up against a Defense that is holding teams to under 70 yards per game on the ground.
Unfortunately for the Volunteers, starting QB Tyler Bray has been ruled out with an injury until next month and will be replaced by Matt Simms. Simms actually played against LSU last season and didn't do too badly, but he will still find it hard to replicate the passing yards Bray has had on the season, especially against this Defense which has allowed just 184 yards per game through the air.
I also expect the Tigers to get plenty of pressure on Simms with their Defensive front and this could lead to a tough day in the office for the senior QB.
The LSU Offense is not exactly firing on all cylinders, but they have not been forced to do a lot with the Defense creating short fields and being able to score themselves. They average 366 yards per game in total Offense, but the balance is incredible with both rushing and passing yards at 183 yards.
Spencer Ware and Marcus Ford have been mainly responsible for the rushing yards, although they are not dominating teams on that front, but wearing them down. The Tigers are gaining just 4.1 yards per carry on the ground, but they should find plenty of success against a Tennessee team that really struggles to protect themselves on the ground.
Jarrett Lee has been tremendously efficient at QB this season and continues to be the starter despite the return of Jordan Jefferson from suspension. That is not to say Jefferson will not come into the game to provide something different for the Tigers when Les Miles feels the need it.
The Volunteers have been pretty good defending the pass this season, holding teams to 204 yards on average through the air, including keeping Florida to just 213 yards in a loss down in Gainesville.
As well as Tyler Bray, Tennessee look set to miss their leading rusher, Tauren Poole, while the loss of Justin Hunter (WR) in the loss at Florida is having an effect on the passing game.
Craig Loston (FS) will be hoping to come back into the team after missing 2 weeks with a concussion. He had played in 4 games for Louisiana State before the injury against West Virginia.
Head to Head
These two had a memorable game last season when LSU beat Tennessee 16-14 at home after getting a second life when being stopped by the Volunteers on the goal line with seconds remaining. Tennessee had too many players on the field and the Tigers were given 1 more play to run where they scored the winning TD.
That was the 3rd straight win in the series for the Tigers against Tennessee, although they are just 1-1-1 against the spread in those games.
LSU have won their last 2 visits to Tennessee, both straight up and against the spread.
The road team is 4-0-2 against the spread in the last 6 games of the series.
Tennessee are 2-1-2 against the spread this season, LSU are 4-2.
Other Interesting Trends
Tennessee are 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games as the underdog of 10.5 points or more. However, they have lost their last 4 games against the spread as the home underdog.
They are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against fellow Conference teams.
Louisiana State are 6-18 against the spread in their last 24 games as the favourite of 10.5 points or more. They are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road favourite of 10.5 points or more.
Prediction
The point spread has steadily been moving upwards all week as the public pounds LSU to cover the spread because Tennessee will be missing their starting QB.
I, on the other hand, think there may be an opportunity taking Tennessee with the big points advantage for the following reasons:
First, LSU may take a breather here in this game considering how tough their schedule has been of late while they next meet the Auburn Tigers and then the big game with Alabama. Facing a backup QB may also see them lose just a touch of focus.
Second, Tennessee will be extra motivated to play to their full abilities as they are missing Tyler Bray and will try that much harder knowing they are missing a key player.
Third, Matt Simms almost led Tennessee to a surprise win over LSU last season on the road as the 16.5 point underdogs.
It has not been wise to back against the top teams in the country so far this season, and I may feel like a bit of a chump come around 11pm on Saturday evening, but Tennessee look in a good spot here to get a backdoor cover at worst.
The Pick :
Tennessee Volunteers 16-31 Louisiana State
