NCAA Football
2011-10-15 - Alabama at Mississippi
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, October 15th, 2011, 6:00PM US
(11:00PM GMT)
PREVIEW
Alabama are clearly better than Mississippi but there is a big question about fatigue in this match and the number is way too big here. Mississippi are getting 25.5 points, having just had a bye. I expect to see it drop considerably by gameday and so recommend taking it now.
Alabama have gone 6-0 through the first 6 weeks but they have had no rest. Mississippi are 2-3 but are off a bye, so have had 2 weeks to rest and prepare for this match, with the aim of making a statement by giving one of the best teams in the country and tough match. Also, before they began their break, they won, beating Fresno State 38-28 when they were listed as 3.5 point underdogs! Their record is misleading because they can compete.
Alabama have not covered against Mississippi much in recent memory. Looking back at the numbers you will see that Mississippi lost in Alabama 23-10 last year, but easily covered the 20 point spread. The year before that Alabama covered their 3.5 spread but the previous 4 games before that have all seen Mississippi lose but cover the spread.
Mississippi's blip came against Vanderbilt, who hammered them and then got hammered themselves by Alabama. Looking at those 2 games you would think Alabama have enough to thump Mississippi. And you'd be right. However, Ole Miss were at Vandy for that loss, while Vandy took that beating from the Crimson Tide in Alabama. It's harder when it's on the road and Alabama are on the road here. Tired and looking forward to a rest. All they want to do is win and stay healthy. Mississippi will be ready for a fight.
BETTING VERDICT
Huge number and I suggest taking this before it drops to 23 or even 22. Ole Miss will score a few late scores and get within the number.
The Pick :
Mississippi to cover
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Mississippi +25.5 @ 1.97 (Pinnacle)
