NCAA Football
2011-10-15 - Florida at Auburn
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, October 15th, 2011, 7:00PM US
(12:00AM GMT)
PREVIEW
Florida are very much a public team, and no one wants to accept the fact that a good team is going to stomp on them. For some bizarre reason, Florida are favourites of 2 points here, on the road against a ranked team they have struggled against in recent games. No brainer.
The situation here reminds me of the Philadelphia Eagles. No one wanted to bet against them, despite the team not performing and getting wins. Against Buffalo, they were priced as 3 point favourites, and as I predicted, they lost outright. Same thing here. Both teams are 4-2, but there is a different in talent here.
Auburn are 25-8-1 here at home against Florida, and 42-38-1 overall. The last 2 meetings have been won by Auburn. It will be tough again here for Florida, who have lost their last 2, both lopsided results, going down 28-10 to Alabama before losing 41-11 to LSU. The Gators offence is in a mess thanks to injuries. QB John Brantley is out with an ankle injury, while his back-up Jeff Driskel is also out with an ankle injury. The star RB on the team, Jeff Demps, is injured as well. Yep, it's his ankle. Even if these two play, how much damage can they possibly do?
Anyway, that leaves a freshman to throw the ball for Florida. QB Jacoby Brissett had to come on against LSU last week and threw for just 94 yards, getting intercepted twice. Poor Chris Rainey was not allowed to do any damage either and Florida ended up with just 213 total yards. With the offence stalling on most drives (they had just 9 1st downs) the defence spent too much time on the pitch and they got gashed for over 450 yards, surrendering yardage on the ground and through the air. It was a mess, and the defence will be severely fatigued.
Florida's numbers look good if you look at stats, 30 points per game and 380 total yards per game is impressive, but they did that with their starters fit through the first 4 games. Now, they're banged up. They're not going to manage that kind of production against Auburn, who have won 3 of their last 4 meetings with Florida.
Auburn are off a lopsided loss too, going down 38-14 at Arkansas. The other loss they suffered this season came against Clemson. Make no mistake, those are two very good schools they lost to. Auburn's problems have been on defence, but that is likely to change as they are facing a stuttering offence with a whole host of injuries in key positions.
On offence, Auburn look sound enough. Their main threat is sophomore RB Michael Dyer. Dyer has 679 yards rushing and 8 TDs, meaning he is ranked 3rd in the SEC and 16th in the nation. QB Barrett Trotter has 9 TDs but is only completing 56% of his passes so far. However, Florida have been making too many mistakes recently and it has been costing them bigtime. At 9.2 penalties per game and drawing 5 flags, they are the most penalised team in the country.
BETTING VERDICT
Auburn are the defending National champions. They are fresh off a humiliating loss against Arkansas and are now at home, looking to make amends. No way I bet against them. Take the Tigers to win this one outright.
The Pick :
Auburn +2
BEST BETTING TIP :
Main Bet :Take Auburn to win on the ML @ 2.11 (Pinnacle)
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Auburn +2 @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
