NCAA Football
2011-10-15 - Boise State at Colorado State
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, October 15th, 2011, 6:00PM US
(11:00PM GMT)
PREVIEW
Boise State are 5-0 now, and ranked 5th in the nation, looking to run the table in style to make sure they have the best chance to play in the Championship game. They did everything right last week, blowing Fresno out and covering the spread by almost as much as this weeks spread!
Colorado State are capable of putting up scores, but then they have not faced a defence like Boise. The Broncos defence are ranked 12th in yards allowed and 10th in scoring defence. Also, they will be able to pressure the Colorado State QB, Pete Thomas, into making a lot of mistakes. Colorado State have been abysmal in protecting their passer, and are giving up 2.6 sacks per game. Thomas is also making a lot of mistakes, and while he has hit 6 TDs, he has been intercepted 5 times!
Raymond Carter and Chris Nwoke are the men who will try and get some yardage on the ground for Colorado State, but again, this Boise State defence is stingy, having not allowed any opponent to even score in the 1st quarter, while ranking #1 in the country in 3rd down situations, with opponents converting just 24%.
Colorado State were held to just 14 points in their 4 point league win over New Mexico. Boise has a defence far better than theirs, and that leads me to believe Colorado State would do well to match that total here.
Boise State? Well, Moore continues his amazing play, hammering in 17 TD passes and getting picked just 4 times. He should throw a fair few here, which will take him past Hawaii's Chang in the all time list, and he will also have receiver Geraldo Boldewijn to throw to, which means this offence gets even deadlier. Boldewijn missed the first 4 games via suspension but came back last week and hauled in 2 TD passes in that 57-7 rout of Fresno.
The only concern here is Moore being pulled in the 4th or even 3rd quarter, as the coach has been doing lately to give others playing time. With Moore in the game, I like Boise to stomp all over Colorado State by about 35 points here, as they are looking to make a statement in their very first league game since moving to the MWC.
BETTING VERDICT
I'm going to hold off here and ask you to come back for my selection in a while. I'm waiting for the 1st half lines to come in on Pinnacle as I would like to bet the Broncos to start fast and build a big lead early, enough to cover what I feel the spread should be.
Shall post a bet as soon as that is in.
The Pick :
Boise State
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Boise State -18 for 1st half @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
