NCAA FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - SAN DIEGO STATE @ AIR FORCE

NCAA Football

2011-10-13 - San Diego State at Air Force

A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted

SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS @ AIR FORCE FALCONS
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Thursday, October 13th, 2011, 8:00PM US
(1:00AM GMT)

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PREVIEW

Air Force have never ever opened 0-2 in the MWC and they are not looking to start now. An opening 35-19 loss against TCU in their conference was followed by impressive wins over Tennessee State (63-24) and then Navy (35-34 OT) and even though Air Force could not beat Notre Dame last week, their 59-33 loss was encouraging in that they scored 33 points! That kind of play here is all that is needed, minus the turnovers!

I've said it before and I'll say it again. I'm a fan of the Air Force QB, Jefferson, who has now completed 64% of his passes for 630 yards and 6 TDs, despite playing for a team that relies almost exclusively on running the ball. It gives them another dimension and keeps the opposing defences guessing. Only Notre Dame's offence saved them, as they gave up 33 points to Air Force. This week, Air Force faces a San Diego offence that is ranked just 63rd in the nation!

As for Air Force, well they are ranked 8th in total offence in the nation, and are 2nd best when running the ball. Then there is Tim Jefferson making the big plays too! San Diego are also 3-2 so far, and have also lost to TCU, 27-14. TCU managed to keep San Diego off the board until almost 10 minutes had passed in the 3rd quarter! The Aztecs are managing just 175 yards rushing per game so far.

The stat that is surprising is that San Diego State have the top ranked pass defence in the MWC and 8th in the country. This is misleading, as the reason for this is that most teams just run the ball on San Diego, knowing this is their weakness. Hence the smaller passing figures. (What would you do without me, hmm?)

Anyway, guess who runs the ball well. Air Force, that's who. They are fresh off a loss last week, while they are looking to claw their way back after already opening conference play 0-1. And they are at home.

And oh, huge revenge angle here as last year the Aztecs won this game at home 27-25, but the overall series stands at 19-10 in favour of the Falcons.

BETTING VERDICT

The offensive performance of Air Force last week leads me to believe they will score a bunch of points here, but I do worry a bit by the way they allowed Navy to fight their way back despite leading comfortably.

The spread is set at 7, and I've got this niggling feeling Air Force might make it difficult for themselves and allow a backdoor cover. It's a toughie.

Right, the ML win is priced too low, so maybe we can take Air Force -3 and get better value? Mind you, the Air Force defence is cause for concern, but I trust the running and Jefferson enough to get us through. Let's just hope it's not by only 2!

The Pick :