NFL Football
2011-10-09 - Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NFL
Sunday, October 9th, 2011, 1:00PM US
(6:00PM GMT)
PREVIEW
Let's face it, these two stink. Kansas City somehow got in the win column last week with victory over the Minnesota Vikings, who are quite possibly the most unlucky team at the moment, while the Manning-less Colts stand at 0-4.
Kansas City got to 1-3 with a 22-17 decision over the Vikings. QB Matt Cassel threw a 52 yarder to Dwayne Bowe and Ryan Succop kicked 5 field goals in the game, a franchise record. These two stats stand out for me, as they relate to my selection. Cassel could hardly move the chains against Minny, just as he has been struggling all season. In the end, it took a huge pass to Bowe and the proof that the chains kept stalling are in the FGs. You don't kick FGs unless you've been shut down when you're nearing TD territory.
Kansas have hardly managed to score. In the first 2 games, they managed just 10 points combined! With the pass ineffective, the rush would have been the option but of course Jamaa Charles is injured so even that is now shut down. Understandably, Kansas City are not the favourites here, despite being the ones with a win. Away from home, they are going to get tested by the Colts, who did a decent job last week.
Indianapolis might be 0-4 but they've been closer to wins in their last 2 games than earlier. Last Monday, the Colts lost 24-17 to the Tampa Bay Buccs. With Manning gone, the Colts had to start Curtis Painter, and both his TD passes were long ones, as he failed to complete 17 of his 30 attempts!
Look, neither one of these teams can run the ball effectively, and both Cassel and Painter will know they have a shot at the other, as they are both struggling and far from clinical. However, both will face better pass rushes than they can handle. Kansas have Hali and the Colts have Freeney and Mathis, so drives will inevitably fail.
And if they do get to their opponents red-zone, neither look likely to put it in the end-zone. Kansas City and Indianapolis are the worst in the league for scoring TDs when close. The edge will go to Indianapolis as Kansas have allowed more opponents to do the business when within 20 yards. However, I expect both teams to end up having to settle for 3 points instead of 7, just to keep the scores ticking and not waste drives.
BETTING VERDICT
I think there are going to be a bunch of Field Goals here. But what's this? The FG Total has been set at 3.5 and the price on Over is 2.35? Mistake. Let's get on it.
The Pick :
Over 3.5 Field Goals in the game
