NFL Football
2011-10-09 - Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NFL
Sunday, October 9th, 2011, 8:20PM US
(1:20AM GMT)
PREVIEW
Green Bay opened as 4 point favourites for this road game down in Georgia and thats gone to 5.5 and will likely hit 6 very soon. It looks obvious but I think Atlanta may have something to say here.
Green Bay absolutely demolished Atlanta here back in January en route to the Superbowl. They won 48-21 and with the way they have been scoring, you'd think they will do it again. The Packers have broken franchise records, scoring 148 in their 4-0 start, and have a great chance to go 5-0 for the first time in 46 years. Rodgers is playing lights out. Against Denver, he had 408 yards, 4 TDs, and even ran in 2 more TDs himself! No one has ever put in a performance like that in the NFL. The score was very close to that win over Atlanta last season, with Denver losing 49-23.
Add to that Ryan Grant, and Bryan Bulaga, who both seem fit to play this week, and you have an offence that is not likely to be stopped by Atlanta, who are pretty poor defending the pass. The Falcons rank 24th in the league against the pass, and last week found it difficult to stop Michael Vick from pulling his team back.
I still have doubts about this number. After 4 games, there is the question of fatigue, a spread that is being inflated as the public pounds it with the Packers definitely the favourite team. The Packers are still on the road here, and are playing against Atlanta in a revenge match for the Falcons. Remember, on this ground, Matt Ryan has led his team to a dominant 21-2 mark over his career. They don't lose easy here with him.
And then there is the biggest question mark of them all. Green Bay's defence. Their pass defence, to be precise. Because while the whole world focuses on the points the offence so comfortably puts up, no one is keeping track of the defence, that is still allowing so many points it ranks almost last in the NFL against the pass! On the road, giving up an average of 336 yards per game passing? Not trustworthy.
Atlanta has a defence that is very opportunistic, and any lapses in concentration from Green Bay will be costly. They are set up perfectly to have that letdown here after that massive win last week. But with the Falcons turning their 8 takeaways into 27 points this season, you've got to expect they will make this more of a fight than the public expects.
As I said, the Green Bay pass defence will likely struggle again. Last week, despite winning big, they gave up 23 points. In that blowout last year, they gave up 21 points to Atlanta. Matt Ryan is spearheading a pass offence that is ranked 11th in the NFL. I don't think Green Bay will hold strong in this one.
BETTING VERDICT
Well, the spread has moved to 6 now, and the value is definitely on Atlanta. If you're playing teasers, Atlanta is a great selection at +13.
My thoughts are that if you MUST pick an ATS side, it should be Atlanta (but it's hard betting against Green Bay, isn't it?) The better bet is on the total, and I believe this match will go OVER 53 points.
I'm going to suggest a few other bets here for you though, and I would recommend taking both of them.
The Pick :
Green Bay Packers win
BEST BETTING TIP :
Side Bets :Either Team To Score 3 Unanswered Times - NO @ 2.50 (Bet365)
Atlanta Falcons Team Total - OVER 23.5 points @ 1.80 (Bet365)
